Ozkan Of, Guner A, Kaya U, Kece C, Reis E, Kesici S
Chirurgia (Bucur). 2014 Nov-Dec;109(6):800-5.
To compare the Colorectal Physiological and Operative Score for enUmeration of Mortality and Morbidity (Cr-POSSUM) with the original Association of Coloproctology of Great Britain and Ireland (ACPGBI) and new ACPGBI scoring systems for their ability to predict mortality after colorectal cancer surgery.
We retrospectively calculated the Cr-POSSUM,original ACPBGI and new ACPGBI scores of 105 patients who underwent colorectal cancer surgery. Data were obtained from patients' medical records and operative notes.Mortality was defined as death within 30 days of surgery.Scores were validated by assessing their calibration and discrimination. Calibration was assessed using the Hosmer-Leme show test and corresponding calibration curves. The discriminative capability of the models was evaluated using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis.
The observed mortality rate was 4.8 %. The over all estimated risks of death of the Cr-POSSUM, original ACPGBI, and new ACPGBI scores were 9.92%, 7.35% and 4.20%, respectively. The results of areas under the curve(AUC) for Cr-POSSUM, original ACPGBI and new ACPGBI scores were 0.792, 0.844 and 0.801 respectively.
The Cr-POSSUM, original ACPGBI and new ACPGBI scoring syStems are accurate in determining mortality rates and for predicting the risks of death in individual patients. The new and original ACPGBI scoring systems performed slightly better than the Cr-POSSUM scoring system.
比较结直肠生理与手术死亡率和发病率枚举评分（Cr-POSSUM）与英国和爱尔兰结直肠外科学会（ACPGBI）的原始评分系统以及新的 ACPGBI 评分系统预测结直肠癌手术后死亡率的能力。
我们回顾性计算了 105 例行结直肠癌手术患者的 Cr-POSSUM、原始 ACPBGI 和新的 ACPGBI 评分。数据来自患者的病历和手术记录。死亡率定义为手术后 30 天内死亡。通过评估评分的校准和辨别能力来验证评分。使用 Hosmer-Leme show 检验和相应的校准曲线评估校准情况。使用受试者工作特征（ROC）曲线分析评估模型的辨别能力。
观察到的死亡率为 4.8%。Cr-POSSUM、原始 ACPGBI 和新的 ACPGBI 评分的总体估计死亡风险分别为 9.92%、7.35%和 4.20%。Cr-POSSUM、原始 ACPGBI 和新的 ACPGBI 评分的曲线下面积（AUC）结果分别为 0.792、0.844 和 0.801。
Cr-POSSUM、原始 ACPGBI 和新的 ACPGBI 评分系统在确定死亡率和预测个体患者死亡风险方面是准确的。新的和原始的 ACPGBI 评分系统的表现略优于 Cr-POSSUM 评分系统。
