透明报告个体预后或诊断的多变量预测模型（TRIPOD）：TRIPOD 声明。

Transparent Reporting of a Multivariable Prediction Model for Individual Prognosis or Diagnosis (TRIPOD): The TRIPOD Statement.

机构信息

Centre for Statistics in Medicine, Nuffield Department of Orthopaedics, Rheumatology and Musculoskeletal Sciences, Botnar Research Centre, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.

Julius Center for Health Sciences and Primary Care, University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht, The Netherlands.

出版信息

Eur Urol. 2015 Jun;67(6):1142-1151. doi: 10.1016/j.eururo.2014.11.025. Epub 2015 Jan 5.

DOI:10.1016/j.eururo.2014.11.025

PMID:25572824

Abstract

CONTEXT

Prediction models are developed to aid health care providers in estimating the probability or risk that a specific disease or condition is present (diagnostic models) or that a specific event will occur in the future (prognostic models), to inform their decision making. However, the overwhelming evidence shows that the quality of reporting of prediction model studies is poor. Only with full and clear reporting of information on all aspects of a prediction model can risk of bias and potential usefulness of prediction models be adequately assessed.

OBJECTIVE

The Transparent Reporting of a multivariable prediction model for Individual Prognosis Or Diagnosis (TRIPOD) Initiative developed a set of recommendations for the reporting of studies developing, validating, or updating a prediction model, whether for diagnostic or prognostic purposes.

EVIDENCE ACQUISITION

This article describes how the TRIPOD Statement was developed. An extensive list of items based on a review of the literature was created, which was reduced after a Web-based survey and revised during a 3-day meeting in June 2011 with methodologists, health care professionals, and journal editors. The list was refined during several meetings of the steering group and in e-mail discussions with the wider group of TRIPOD contributors.

EVIDENCE SYNTHESIS

The resulting TRIPOD Statement is a checklist of 22 items, deemed essential for transparent reporting of a prediction model study. The TRIPOD Statement aims to improve the transparency of the reporting of a prediction model study regardless of the study methods used. The TRIPOD Statement is best used in conjunction with the TRIPOD explanation and elaboration document.

CONCLUSIONS

To aid the editorial process and readers of prediction model studies, it is recommended that authors include a completed checklist in their submission (also available at www.tripod-statement.org).

PATIENT SUMMARY

摘要

背景

预测模型旨在帮助医疗保健提供者估计特定疾病或病症存在的概率或风险（诊断模型）或特定事件将来发生的概率（预后模型），从而为他们的决策提供信息。然而，压倒性的证据表明，预测模型研究报告的质量很差。只有全面、清晰地报告预测模型各个方面的信息，才能充分评估预测模型的偏倚风险和潜在有用性。

目的

多变量个体预后或诊断预测模型的透明报告（TRIPOD）倡议制定了一套报告用于开发、验证或更新预测模型的研究的建议，无论其目的是诊断还是预后。

证据获取

本文描述了 TRIPOD 声明的制定过程。根据文献回顾创建了一个基于广泛的项目清单，该清单在基于网络的调查后进行了简化，并在 2011 年 6 月的为期 3 天的会议上进行了修订，会议参与者包括方法学家、医疗保健专业人员和期刊编辑。该清单在指导小组的几次会议上以及与更广泛的 TRIPOD 贡献者的电子邮件讨论中进行了完善。