Collins G S, Reitsma J B, Altman D G, Moons K G M
Centre for Statistics in Medicine, Nuffield Department of Orthopaedics, Rheumatology and Musculoskeletal Sciences, Botnar Research Centre, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
Diabet Med. 2015 Feb;32(2):146-54. doi: 10.1111/dme.12654.
Prediction models are developed to aid healthcare providers in estimating the probability or risk that a specific disease or condition is present (diagnostic models) or that a specific event will occur in the future (prognostic models), to inform their decision-making. However, the overwhelming evidence shows that the quality of reporting of prediction model studies is poor. Only with full and clear reporting of information on all aspects of a prediction model can risk of bias and potential usefulness of prediction models be adequately assessed. The Transparent Reporting of a multivariable prediction model for Individual Prognosis or Diagnosis (TRIPOD) initiative developed a set of recommendations for the reporting of studies developing, validating or updating a prediction model, whether for diagnostic or prognostic purposes. This article describes how the TRIPOD Statement was developed. An extensive list of items based on a review of the literature was created, which was reduced after a web-based survey and revised during a 3-day meeting in June 2011 with methodologists, healthcare professionals and journal editors. The list was refined during several meetings of the steering group and in e-mail discussions with the wider group of TRIPOD contributors. The resulting TRIPOD Statement is a checklist of 22 items, deemed essential for transparent reporting of a prediction model study. The TRIPOD Statement aims to improve the transparency of the reporting of a prediction model study, regardless of the study methods used. The TRIPOD Statement is best used in conjunction with the TRIPOD explanation and elaboration document. To aid the editorial process and readers of prediction model studies, it is recommended that authors include a completed checklist in their submission (also available at www.tripod-statement.org).
预测模型的开发旨在帮助医疗保健提供者估计特定疾病或状况存在的概率或风险（诊断模型），或特定事件在未来发生的概率或风险（预后模型），为其决策提供依据。然而，大量证据表明预测模型研究的报告质量很差。只有全面、清晰地报告预测模型各方面的信息，才能充分评估预测模型的偏倚风险和潜在效用。个体预后或诊断多变量预测模型的透明报告（TRIPOD）倡议为开发、验证或更新预测模型的研究报告制定了一套建议，无论其目的是诊断还是预后。本文描述了TRIPOD声明是如何制定的。基于文献综述创建了一份广泛的项目清单，在进行网络调查后进行了删减，并在2011年6月与方法学家、医疗保健专业人员和期刊编辑举行的为期3天的会议期间进行了修订。该清单在指导小组的几次会议以及与更广泛的TRIPOD贡献者群体的电子邮件讨论中得到了完善。最终形成的TRIPOD声明是一份包含22项内容的清单，被认为是预测模型研究透明报告的必备要素。TRIPOD声明旨在提高预测模型研究报告的透明度，无论采用何种研究方法。TRIPOD声明最好与TRIPOD解释和阐述文件一起使用。为了帮助预测模型研究的编辑过程和读者，建议作者在投稿时附上一份完整的清单（也可在www.tripod-statement.org上获取）。
