Struebig Matthew J, Wilting Andreas, Gaveau David L A, Meijaard Erik, Smith Robert J, Fischer Manuela, Metcalfe Kristian, Kramer-Schadt Stephanie
Durrell Institute of Conservation and Ecology, School of Anthropology and Conservation, University of Kent, Canterbury CT2 7NR, UK; School of Biological and Chemical Sciences, Queen Mary University of London, Mile End Road, London E1 4NS, UK.
Leibniz Institute for Zoo and Wildlife Research, 10315 Berlin, Germany.
Curr Biol. 2015 Feb 2;25(3):372-378. doi: 10.1016/j.cub.2014.11.067. Epub 2015 Jan 22.
Responses of biodiversity to changes in both land cover and climate are recognized [1] but still poorly understood [2]. This poses significant challenges for spatial planning as species could shift, contract, expand, or maintain their range inside or outside protected areas [2-4]. We examine this problem in Borneo, a global biodiversity hotspot [5], using spatial prioritization analyses that maximize species conservation under multiple environmental-change forecasts. Climate projections indicate that 11%-36% of Bornean mammal species will lose ≥ 30% of their habitat by 2080, and suitable ecological conditions will shift upslope for 23%-46%. Deforestation exacerbates this process, increasing the proportion of species facing comparable habitat loss to 30%-49%, a 2-fold increase on historical trends. Accommodating these distributional changes will require conserving land outside existing protected areas, but this may be less than anticipated from models incorporating deforestation alone because some species will colonize high-elevation reserves. Our results demonstrate the increasing importance of upland reserves and that relatively small additions (16,000-28,000 km(2)) to the current conservation estate could provide substantial benefits to biodiversity facing changes to land cover and climate. On Borneo, much of this land is under forestry jurisdiction, warranting targeted conservation partnerships to safeguard biodiversity in an era of global change.
生物多样性对土地覆盖和气候的变化做出反应，这一点已得到公认[1]，但仍未得到充分理解[2]。这给空间规划带来了重大挑战，因为物种可能会在保护区内外转移、收缩、扩张或维持其分布范围[2 - 4]。我们在全球生物多样性热点地区婆罗洲[5]研究了这个问题，使用空间优先分析方法，在多种环境变化预测下最大化物种保护。气候预测表明，到2080年，11% - 36%的婆罗洲哺乳动物物种将失去≥30%的栖息地，适宜的生态条件将向上坡方向移动23% - 46%。森林砍伐加剧了这一过程，使面临类似栖息地丧失的物种比例增加到30% - 49%，比历史趋势增加了一倍。适应这些分布变化将需要保护现有保护区之外的土地，但这可能比仅考虑森林砍伐的模型预期的要少，因为一些物种将迁入高海拔保护区。我们的结果表明高地保护区的重要性日益增加，并且在当前的保护区中相对少量的增加（16,000 - 28,000平方公里）可以为面临土地覆盖和气候变化的生物多样性带来实质性益处。在婆罗洲，这片土地大部分处于林业管辖范围内，因此需要有针对性的保护伙伴关系，以在全球变化时代保护生物多样性。
