Cranfield Water Science Institute, Cranfield University, MK43 0AL, UK.
Institute for Environment, Health, Risks and Futures, Cranfield University, MK43 0AL, UK.
Sci Total Environ. 2015 Apr 15;512-513:381-396. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2014.12.047. Epub 2015 Jan 30.
Society gets numerous benefits from the water environment. It is crucial to ensure that water management practices deliver these benefits over the long-term in a sustainable and cost-effective way. Currently, hydromorphological alterations and nutrient enrichment pose the greatest challenges in European water bodies. The rapidly changing climatic and socio-economic boundary conditions pose further challenges to water management decisions and the achievement of policy goals. Scenarios are a strategic tool useful in conducting systematic investigations of future uncertainties pertaining to water management. In this study, the use of scenarios revealed water management challenges for England and Wales to 2050. A set of existing scenarios relevant to river basin management were elaborated through stakeholder workshops and interviews, relying on expert knowledge to identify drivers of change, their interdependencies, and influence on system dynamics. In a set of four plausible alternative futures, the causal chain from driving forces through pressures to states, impacts and responses (DPSIR framework) was explored. The findings suggest that scenarios driven by short-term economic growth and competitiveness undermine current environmental legislative requirements and exacerbate the negative impacts of climate change, producing a general deterioration of water quality and physical habitats, as well as reduced water availability with adverse implications for the environment, society and economy. Conversely, there are substantial environmental improvements under the scenarios characterised by long-term sustainability, though achieving currently desired environmental outcomes still poses challenges. The impacts vary across contrasting generic catchment types that exhibit distinct future water management challenges. The findings suggest the need to address hydromorphological alterations, nutrient enrichment and nitrates in drinking water, which are all likely to be exacerbated in the future. Future-proofing river basin management measures that deal with these challenges is crucial moving forward. The use of scenarios to future-proof strategy, policy and delivery mechanisms is discussed to inform next steps.
社会从水环境中获得了诸多益处。至关重要的是，要确保水资源管理实践能够以可持续且具有成本效益的方式长期提供这些益处。目前，欧洲水体面临的最大挑战是水生生境形态改变和营养物富化。快速变化的气候和社会经济边界条件对水资源管理决策和实现政策目标提出了进一步的挑战。情景是一种有用的战略工具，可用于对与水资源管理相关的未来不确定性进行系统研究。本研究使用情景来揭示 2050 年英格兰和威尔士的水资源管理挑战。通过利益相关者研讨会和访谈，制定了一套与流域管理相关的现有情景，依靠专家知识来确定变化的驱动因素、它们的相互依存关系以及对系统动态的影响。在一系列四个合理的替代未来中，探索了从驱动力到压力、状态、影响和响应的因果关系（DPSIR 框架）。研究结果表明，由短期经济增长和竞争力驱动的情景破坏了当前的环境立法要求，并加剧了气候变化的负面影响，导致水质和物理生境普遍恶化，以及水的可用性减少，对环境、社会和经济产生不利影响。相反，在以长期可持续性为特征的情景下，存在大量的环境改善，但要实现当前期望的环境成果仍然存在挑战。这些影响因具有不同未来水资源管理挑战的不同典型集水区类型而异。研究结果表明，需要解决水生生境形态改变、营养物富化和饮用水中的硝酸盐问题，这些问题在未来很可能会加剧。为应对这些挑战，未来-proofing 流域管理措施至关重要。讨论了使用情景为战略、政策和交付机制提供未来保障的问题，以告知下一步行动。
