Sturup Joakim, Karlberg Daniel, Fredriksson Björn, Lihoff Tobias, Kristiansson Marianne
National Board of Forensic Medicine, Karolinska Institutet and Stockholm University, Sweden.
National Board of Forensic Medicine and Karolinska Institutet, Sweden.
Crim Behav Ment Health. 2016 Apr;26(2):124-35. doi: 10.1002/cbm.1941. Epub 2015 Jan 30.
In Sweden, the number of people serving life sentences has steadily increased. To date, few studies have examined the recidivism rate or the predictive validity of different risk assessment instruments in this group.
Our aim was to test the predictive validity among inmates serving life sentences of two different instruments used for assessing risk--the Historical, Clinical and Risk Management-20 (HCR-20), most widely used in clinical populations, and the Psychopathy Checklist-Revised (PCL-R), commonly applied in both penal and clinical settings.
Ninety-eight life-sentenced prisoners were included, 26 of whom were released during the study period. Data on risk assessments and dates for release were collected from administrative records, while recidivism data were retrieved from a national database on criminal convictions.
Sex offenders obtained the highest scores and inmates charged with domestic violent offences obtained the lowest scores on both instruments. The released prisoners were followed for a mean period of 33 months. During this time five prisoners (19%) reoffended, four of them violently, with an average time to recidivism of 10 months. Only PCL-R Facet 4, which reflects antisocial features, was significantly associated with recidivism.
This small, but population-based, study demonstrates that antisocial behaviour shows incremental predictive validity for reoffending among life-sentenced offenders, but other measures have little to add for this specific task. The fact that those life sentenced prisoners who reoffended did so so soon after release should prompt allocation of earlier interventions towards preventing this.
在瑞典，被判处终身监禁的人数稳步增加。迄今为止，很少有研究考察该群体的再犯率或不同风险评估工具的预测效度。
我们的目的是检验用于评估风险的两种不同工具在被判处终身监禁的囚犯中的预测效度，这两种工具分别是临床人群中使用最广泛的《历史、临床及风险管理-20》（HCR-20），以及刑罚和临床环境中常用的《修订版心理变态检查表》（PCL-R）。
纳入了98名被判处终身监禁的囚犯，其中26人在研究期间获释。风险评估数据和释放日期从行政记录中收集，而再犯数据则从国家刑事定罪数据库中获取。
性犯罪者在两种工具上得分最高，而被控家庭暴力犯罪的囚犯得分最低。对获释囚犯平均随访了33个月。在此期间，有5名囚犯（19%）再次犯罪，其中4人实施了暴力犯罪，平均再犯时间为10个月。只有反映反社会特征的PCL-R第4方面与再犯显著相关。
这项规模虽小但基于人群的研究表明，反社会行为对被判处终身监禁的罪犯再次犯罪具有递增的预测效度，但其他指标对这项特定任务几乎没有补充作用。那些再次犯罪的被判处终身监禁的囚犯在获释后不久就再次犯罪，这一事实应促使尽早安排干预措施以预防此类情况。
