Schleier Iii Jerome J, Marshall Lucy A, Davis Ryan S, Peterson Robert K D
Department of Land Resources and Environmental Sciences, Montana State University , Bozeman, MT , USA.
PeerJ. 2015 Jan 15;3:e730. doi: 10.7717/peerj.730. eCollection 2015.
Decision analysis often considers multiple lines of evidence during the decision making process. Researchers and government agencies have advocated for quantitative weight-of-evidence approaches in which multiple lines of evidence can be considered when estimating risk. Therefore, we utilized Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo to integrate several human-health risk assessment, biomonitoring, and epidemiology studies that have been conducted for two common insecticides (malathion and permethrin) used for adult mosquito management to generate an overall estimate of risk quotient (RQ). The utility of the Bayesian inference for risk management is that the estimated risk represents a probability distribution from which the probability of exceeding a threshold can be estimated. The mean RQs after all studies were incorporated were 0.4386, with a variance of 0.0163 for malathion and 0.3281 with a variance of 0.0083 for permethrin. After taking into account all of the evidence available on the risks of ULV insecticides, the probability that malathion or permethrin would exceed a level of concern was less than 0.0001. Bayesian estimates can substantially improve decisions by allowing decision makers to estimate the probability that a risk will exceed a level of concern by considering seemingly disparate lines of evidence.
决策分析在决策过程中通常会考虑多条证据线索。研究人员和政府机构提倡采用定量证据权重方法，即在估计风险时可以考虑多条证据线索。因此，我们利用贝叶斯马尔可夫链蒙特卡洛方法，整合了针对用于成蚊管理的两种常见杀虫剂（马拉硫磷和氯菊酯）开展的多项人体健康风险评估、生物监测和流行病学研究，以得出风险商数（RQ）的总体估计值。贝叶斯推理在风险管理中的作用在于，估计出的风险代表一个概率分布，据此可以估计超过阈值的概率。纳入所有研究后的马拉硫磷平均风险商数为0.4386，方差为0.0163；氯菊酯的平均风险商数为0.3281，方差为0.0083。在考虑了关于超低容量杀虫剂风险的所有现有证据后，马拉硫磷或氯菊酯超过关注水平的概率小于0.0001。贝叶斯估计可以通过让决策者考虑看似不同的证据线索来估计风险超过关注水平的概率，从而大幅改善决策。
