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养老金、保险和员工福利行业的寿命预期。

Longevity expectations in the pension fund, insurance, and employee benefits industries.

机构信息

Biogerontology Research Foundation, London, United Kingdom.

出版信息

Psychol Res Behav Manag. 2015 Jan 20;8:27-39. doi: 10.2147/PRBM.S75440. eCollection 2015.

Abstract

Considerable progress has been made in many areas of biomedical science since the 1960s, suggesting likely increases in life expectancy and decreases in morbidity and mortality in the adult population. These changes may pose substantial risks to the pensions and benefits industries. While there is no significant statistical evidence demonstrating rapid decreases in mortality rates, there are conflicting opinions among demographers and biogerontologists on the biological limits of the human lifespan and trends in life expectancy. We administered a survey of the International Employee Benefits Association (IEBA), a large, international industry group. Industry professionals employed by consulting (35%), insurance (24%), pension (14%), and other (27%) companies responded to 32 questions. Respondents showed reasonably conservative views on the future of longevity and retirement, including that for women. The respondents formed their personal longevity expectations based on their family history and, to a lesser degree, on the actuarial life tables. Most of the sample expressed no desire to life past age 100 years, even if the enabling technologies required to maintain a healthy youthful state were available, and only a few respondents in the sample expressed a desire to live for the maximum period (at least) offered by the survey question. The majority of the respondents would not undergo any invasive procedures, and only 56% of the respondents would opt for noninvasive therapies to extend their healthy lifespans to 150 years of age if these were available.

摘要

自 20 世纪 60 年代以来,生物医学科学的许多领域都取得了重大进展,这表明成年人的预期寿命可能会延长,发病率和死亡率可能会降低。这些变化可能会给养老金和福利行业带来巨大风险。虽然没有确凿的统计证据表明死亡率迅速下降,但人口统计学家和生物老年学家对人类寿命的生物学极限和预期寿命趋势存在分歧。我们对国际员工福利协会(IEBA)进行了一项调查,该协会是一个大型的国际行业组织。来自咨询公司(35%)、保险公司(24%)、养老金公司(14%)和其他公司(27%)的行业专业人士对 32 个问题做出了回应。受访者对长寿和退休的未来持相当保守的看法,包括对女性的看法。受访者根据自己的家族史形成了个人长寿预期,在较小程度上也参考了精算寿命表。大多数受访者表示,即使有维持健康年轻状态所需的技术,他们也不想活到 100 岁以上,只有少数受访者表示希望尽可能长寿(至少)。大多数受访者不会接受任何侵入性手术,如果有延长健康寿命到 150 岁的非侵入性治疗方法,只有 56%的受访者会选择。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/83ea/4309776/f37766d9b055/prbm-8-027Fig1.jpg

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