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既非空想家也非不可知论者:党派政治时代另类选民的信仰体系。

Neither ideologues nor agnostics: alternative voters' belief system in an age of partisan politics.

作者信息

Baldassarri Delia, Goldberg Amir

出版信息

AJS. 2014 Jul;120(1):45-95. doi: 10.1086/676042.

Abstract

How do Americans organize their political beliefs? This article argues that party polarization and the growing prominence of moral issues in recent decades have catalyzed different responses by different groups of Americans. The article investigates systematic heterogeneity in the organization of political attitudes using relational class analysis, a graph-based method for detecting multiple patterns of opinion in survey data. Three subpopulations, each characterized by a distinctive way of organizing its political beliefs, are identified: ideologues, whose political attitudes strongly align with either liberal or conservative categories; alternatives, who are instead morally conservative but economically liberal, or vice versa; and agnostics, who exhibit weak associations between political beliefs. Individuals' sociodemographic profiles, particularly their income, education, and religiosity, lie at the core of the different ways in which they understand politics. Results show that while ideologues have gone through a process of issue alignment, alternatives have grown increasingly apart from the political agendas of both parties. The conflictual presence of conservative and liberal preferences has often been resolved by alternative voters in favor of the Republican Party.

摘要

美国人如何组织他们的政治信仰?本文认为,政党两极分化以及近几十年来道德问题日益突出,促使不同群体的美国人做出了不同反应。本文使用关系类别分析来研究政治态度组织中的系统异质性,这是一种基于图表的方法,用于在调查数据中检测多种意见模式。研究识别出了三个亚群体,每个亚群体都有其独特的组织政治信仰的方式:意识形态者,其政治态度与自由派或保守派类别强烈一致;另类者,他们在道德上保守但在经济上自由,或者反之;以及不可知论者,他们的政治信仰之间关联较弱。个人的社会人口特征,尤其是他们的收入、教育程度和宗教信仰,是他们理解政治的不同方式的核心。结果表明,虽然意识形态者经历了议题对齐的过程,但另类者与两党的政治议程越来越脱节。保守派和自由派偏好的冲突性存在往往由另类选民以支持共和党的方式解决。

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