Pearce-Higgins James W, Eglington Sarah M, Martay Blaise, Chamberlain Dan E
British Trust for Ornithology, The Nunnery, Thetford, Norfolk, IP24 2PU, UK.
Dipartimento di Scienze della Vita e Biologia dei Sistemi, Università di Torino, Via Accademia Albertina 13, 10123, Torino, Italy.
J Anim Ecol. 2015 Jul;84(4):943-54. doi: 10.1111/1365-2656.12364. Epub 2015 Apr 6.
Climate change is reported to have caused widespread changes to species' populations and ecological communities. Warming has been associated with population declines in long-distance migrants and habitat specialists, and increases in southerly distributed species. However, the specific climatic drivers behind these changes remain undescribed. We analysed annual fluctuations in the abundance of 59 breeding bird species in England over 45 years to test the effect of monthly temperature and precipitation means upon population trends. Strong positive correlations between population growth and both winter and breeding season temperature were identified for resident and short-distance migrants. Lagged correlations between population growth and summer temperature and precipitation identified for the first time a widespread negative impact of hot, dry summer weather. Resident populations appeared to increase following wet autumns. Populations of long-distance migrants were negatively affected by May temperature, consistent with a potential negative effect of phenological mismatch upon breeding success. There was evidence for some nonlinear relationships between monthly weather variables and population growth. Habitat specialists and cold-associated species showed consistently more negative effects of higher temperatures than habitat generalists and southerly distributed species associated with warm temperatures. Results suggest that previously reported changes in community composition represent the accumulated effects of spring and summer warming. Long-term population trends were more significantly correlated with species' sensitivity to temperature than precipitation, suggesting that warming has had a greater impact on population trends than changes in precipitation. Months where there had been the greatest warming were the most influential drivers of long-term change. There was also evidence that species with the greatest sensitivity to extremes of precipitation have tended to decline. Our results provide novel insights about the impact of climate change on bird communities. Significant lagged effects highlight the potential for altered species' interactions to drive observed climate change impacts, although some community changes may have been driven by more immediate responses to warming. In England, resident and short-distance migrant populations have increased in response to climate change, but potentially at the expense of long-distance migrants, habitat specialists and cold-associated species.
据报道，气候变化已导致物种数量和生态群落发生广泛变化。气候变暖与长途迁徙鸟类和栖息地 specialists 的数量减少以及分布在更南部的物种数量增加有关。然而，这些变化背后的具体气候驱动因素仍未得到描述。我们分析了 45 年间英格兰 59 种繁殖鸟类数量的年度波动情况，以测试月平均温度和降水量对种群趋势的影响。对于留鸟和短距离迁徙鸟类，我们发现种群增长与冬季和繁殖季节温度之间存在强烈的正相关关系。首次确定了种群增长与夏季温度和降水量之间的滞后相关性，即炎热干燥的夏季天气具有广泛的负面影响。秋季湿润后留鸟种群数量似乎会增加。长途迁徙鸟类的数量受到 5 月温度的负面影响，这与物候不匹配对繁殖成功率的潜在负面影响一致。有证据表明月天气变量与种群增长之间存在一些非线性关系。与栖息地 generalists 和与温暖温度相关的分布在更南部的物种相比，栖息地 specialists 和与寒冷相关的物种受较高温度的负面影响始终更大。结果表明，先前报道的群落组成变化代表了春季和夏季变暖的累积影响。长期种群趋势与物种对温度的敏感性比与降水量的相关性更强，这表明变暖对种群趋势的影响大于降水量变化。变暖幅度最大的月份是长期变化的最有影响力的驱动因素。也有证据表明，对极端降水量最敏感的物种数量往往会减少。我们的研究结果为气候变化对鸟类群落的影响提供了新的见解。显著的滞后效应凸显了物种间相互作用改变推动观察到的气候变化影响的可能性，尽管一些群落变化可能是由对变暖的更直接反应驱动的。在英格兰，留鸟和短距离迁徙鸟类种群数量因气候变化而增加，但可能是以长途迁徙鸟类、栖息地 specialists 和与寒冷相关的物种为代价。
