Morrison Catriona A, Gill Jennifer A, Buchan Claire, Robinson Robert A, Arizaga Juan, Baltà Oriol, Baltag Emanuel, Cepák Jaroslav, Henry Pierre-Yves, Henshaw Ian, Karcza Zsolt, Lehikoinen Petteri, Lopes Ricardo Jorge, Meister Bert, Pirrello Simone, Thorup Kasper, Butler Simon J
School of Biological Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK.
British Trust for Ornithology, Thetford, UK.
Ecol Lett. 2025 May;28(5):e70105. doi: 10.1111/ele.70105.
Synchronous fluctuations in species' abundance are influenced by synchrony in underlying rates of productivity and survival. However, it remains unclear how rate synchrony varies in space and time, contributes to abundance synchrony, and differs among species. Using long-term annual count (number of adults captured), adult survival and productivity (number of juveniles captured per adult) data for breeding land-birds at ringing sites across Europe, we show that synchrony is strongest and largest scale in productivity and weakest and smallest scale in counts. However, counts fluctuate more synchronously with survival than they do with productivity. These patterns hold for species which do not migrate or only migrate within Europe (European-residents) and those migrating to sub-Saharan Africa (subSaharan-migrants), but the periodicity of productivity and survival synchrony is longer in European-residents than in subSaharan-migrants. This suggests that survival and productivity synchrony may interact to weaken abundance fluctuations but are influenced by environmental drivers operating over differing timescales in European-resident and subSaharan-migrant species.
物种丰度的同步波动受潜在生产力和存活率同步性的影响。然而，速率同步性如何在空间和时间上变化、如何促成丰度同步性以及在不同物种间存在何种差异仍不明确。利用欧洲各地环志站点繁殖陆鸟的长期年度计数（捕获的成年个体数量）、成年个体存活率和生产力（每个成年个体捕获的幼体数量）数据，我们发现同步性在生产力方面最强且空间尺度最大，在计数方面最弱且空间尺度最小。然而，计数与存活率的同步波动比与生产力的同步波动更大。这些模式适用于不迁徙或仅在欧洲境内迁徙的物种（欧洲留鸟）以及迁徙到撒哈拉以南非洲的物种（撒哈拉以南迁徙鸟），但欧洲留鸟的生产力和存活率同步性的周期性比撒哈拉以南迁徙鸟更长。这表明存活率和生产力同步性可能相互作用以减弱丰度波动，但受到在欧洲留鸟和撒哈拉以南迁徙鸟物种中不同时间尺度上起作用的环境驱动因素的影响。
