Piccardi Carlo, Colombo Alessandro, Casagrandi Renato
Department of Electronics, Information and Bioengineering, Politecnico di Milano, 20133 Milano, Italy.
Phys Rev E Stat Nonlin Soft Matter Phys. 2015 Feb;91(2):022809. doi: 10.1103/PhysRevE.91.022809. Epub 2015 Feb 17.
The effects of network topology on the emergence and persistence of infectious diseases have been broadly explored in recent years. However, the influence of the vital dynamics of the hosts (i.e., birth-death processes) on the network structure, and their effects on the pattern of epidemics, have received less attention in the scientific community. Here, we study Susceptible-Infected-Recovered(-Susceptible) [SIR(S)] contact processes in standard networks (of Erdös-Rényi and Barabási-Albert type) that are subject to host demography. Accounting for the vital dynamics of hosts is far from trivial, and it causes the scale-free networks to lose their characteristic fat-tailed degree distribution. We introduce a broad class of models that integrate the birth and death of individuals (nodes) with the simplest mechanisms of infection and recovery, thus generating age-degree structured networks of hosts that interact in a complex manner. In our models, the epidemiological state of each individual may depend both on the number of contacts (which changes through time because of the birth-death process) and on its age, paving the way for a possible age-dependent description of contagion and recovery processes. We study how the proportion of infected individuals scales with the number of contacts among them. Rather unexpectedly, we discover that the result of highly connected individuals at the highest risk of infection is not as general as commonly believed. In infections that confer permanent immunity to individuals of vital populations (SIR processes), the nodes that are most likely to be infected are those with intermediate degrees. Our age-degree structured models allow such findings to be deeply analyzed and interpreted, and they may aid in the development of effective prevention policies.
近年来,网络拓扑结构对传染病的出现和持续存在的影响已得到广泛研究。然而,宿主的生命动态(即出生 - 死亡过程)对网络结构的影响及其对疫情模式的作用,在科学界受到的关注较少。在此,我们研究在受宿主人口统计学影响的标准网络(如厄多斯 - 雷尼型和巴拉巴西 - 阿尔伯特型网络)中的易感 - 感染 - 康复( - 易感)[SIR(S)]接触过程。考虑宿主的生命动态并非易事,这会使无标度网络失去其特征性的胖尾度分布。我们引入了一类广泛的模型,将个体(节点)的出生和死亡与最简单的感染和康复机制相结合,从而生成以复杂方式相互作用的宿主年龄 - 度结构网络。在我们的模型中,每个个体的流行病学状态可能既取决于接触数量(由于出生 - 死亡过程随时间变化)又取决于其年龄,为传染病传播和康复过程可能的年龄依赖性描述铺平了道路。我们研究感染个体的比例如何随他们之间的接触数量变化。相当出乎意料的是,我们发现处于最高感染风险的高度连接个体的结果并不像普遍认为的那样常见。在能使重要人群个体获得永久免疫力的感染(SIR过程)中,最有可能被感染的节点是那些具有中等度数的节点。我们的年龄 - 度结构模型使这些发现能够得到深入分析和解释,并且可能有助于制定有效的预防政策。