U.S. Geological Survey - Wisconsin Water Science Center, 8505 Research Way, Middleton, WI, USA.
Sci Total Environ. 2015 Jul 15;521-522:11-8. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2015.03.072. Epub 2015 Mar 28.
The potential for increases in stream temperature across many spatial and temporal scales as a result of climate change can pose a difficult challenge for environmental managers, especially when addressing thermal requirements for sensitive aquatic species. This study evaluates simulated changes to the thermal regime of three northern Wisconsin streams in response to a projected changing climate using a modeling framework and considers implications of thermal stresses to the fish community. The Stream Network Temperature Model (SNTEMP) was used in combination with a coupled groundwater and surface water flow model to assess forecasts in climate from six global circulation models and three emission scenarios. Model results suggest that annual average stream temperature will steadily increase approximately 1.1 to 3.2°C (varying by stream) by the year 2100 with differences in magnitude between emission scenarios. Daily mean stream temperature during the months of July and August, a period when cold-water fish communities are most sensitive, showed excursions from optimal temperatures with increased frequency compared to current conditions. Projections of daily mean stream temperature, in some cases, were no longer in the range necessary to sustain a cold water fishery.
由于气候变化，许多时空尺度的河流温度都有可能升高，这对环境管理者来说是一个巨大的挑战，特别是在解决敏感水生物种的热需求方面。本研究使用建模框架评估了气候变化对威斯康星州北部三条河流热状况的模拟变化，并考虑了热应激对鱼类群落的影响。溪流网络温度模型（SNTEMP）与地下水和地表水流动模型相结合，用于评估来自六个全球环流模型和三个排放情景的气候预测。模型结果表明，到 2100 年，年平均河流温度将稳步上升约 1.1 至 3.2°C（每条河流的变化幅度不同），排放情景之间的差异较大。在 7 月和 8 月（冷水鱼类群落最敏感的时期）的日平均河流温度显示出与当前情况相比，鱼类偏离最佳温度的频率增加。在某些情况下，日平均河流温度的预测已不再处于维持冷水渔业所需的范围内。
