International Crops Research Institute for Semi-Arid Tropics (ICRISAT), Patancheru, Hyderabad 502324, India.
International Crops Research Institute for Semi-Arid Tropics (ICRISAT), Patancheru, Hyderabad 502324, India.
Sci Total Environ. 2015 Jul 15;521-522:123-34. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2015.03.097. Epub 2015 Mar 30.
The semi-arid tropical (SAT) regions of India are suffering from low productivity which may be further aggravated by anticipated climate change. The present study analyzes the spatial variability of climate change impacts on groundnut yields in the Anantapur district of India and examines the relative contribution of adaptation strategies. For this purpose, a web based decision support tool that integrates crop simulation model and Geographical Information System (GIS) was developed to assist agronomic decision making and this tool can be scalable to any location and crop. The climate change projections of five global climate models (GCMs) relative to the 1980-2010 baseline for Anantapur district indicates an increase in rainfall activity to the tune of 10.6 to 25% during Mid-century period (2040-69) with RCP 8.5. The GCMs also predict warming exceeding 1.4 to 2.4°C by 2069 in the study region. The spatial crop responses to the projected climate indicate a decrease in groundnut yields with four GCMs (MPI-ESM-MR, MIROC5, CCSM4 and HadGEM2-ES) and a contrasting 6.3% increase with the GCM, GFDL-ESM2M. The simulation studies using CROPGRO-Peanut model reveals that groundnut yields can be increased on average by 1.0%, 5.0%, 14.4%, and 20.2%, by adopting adaptation options of heat tolerance, drought tolerant cultivars, supplemental irrigation and a combination of drought tolerance cultivar and supplemental irrigation respectively. The spatial patterns of relative benefits of adaptation options were geographically different and the greatest benefits can be achieved by adopting new cultivars having drought tolerance and with the application of one supplemental irrigation at 60days after sowing.
印度半干旱热带（SAT）地区的生产力低下，预计气候变化可能会进一步加剧这一问题。本研究分析了气候变化对印度安得拉邦花生产量的空间变异性影响，并考察了适应策略的相对贡献。为此，开发了一个基于网络的决策支持工具，该工具集成了作物模拟模型和地理信息系统（GIS），以协助农业决策，并且该工具可以扩展到任何地点和作物。相对于安得拉邦的 1980-2010 年基准，五个全球气候模型（GCM）对气候变化的预测表明，在中期（2040-2069 年）期间，降雨量将增加 10.6%至 25%，采用 RCP 8.5 情景。GCM 还预测，到 2069 年，研究区域的升温将超过 1.4°C 至 2.4°C。对预测气候的空间作物响应表明，四个 GCM（MPI-ESM-MR、MIROC5、CCSM4 和 HadGEM2-ES）预测花生产量将下降，而 GCM GFDL-ESM2M 预测产量将增加 6.3%。使用 CROPGRO-Peanut 模型进行的模拟研究表明，通过采用耐热性、耐旱品种、补充灌溉以及耐旱品种和补充灌溉相结合的适应方案，花生平均产量可分别提高 1.0%、5.0%、14.4%和 20.2%。适应方案的相对效益的空间格局在地理上有所不同，通过采用具有耐旱性的新品种，并在播种后 60 天进行一次补充灌溉，可以实现最大的效益。
