Development of an aerobic capacity prediction model from one-mile run/walk performance in adolescents aged 13-16 years.

A popular algorithm to predict VO2Peak from the one-mile run/walk test (1MRW) includes body mass index (BMI), which manifests practical issues in school settings. The purpose of this study was to develop an aerobic capacity model from 1MRW in adolescents independent of BMI. Cardiorespiratory endurance data were collected on 90 adolescents aged 13-16 years. The 1MRW was administered on an outside track and a laboratory VO2Peak test was conducted using a maximal treadmill protocol. Multiple linear regression was employed to develop the prediction model. Results yielded the following algorithm: VO2Peak = 7.34 × (1MRW speed in m s(-1)) + 0.23 × (age × sex) + 17.75. The New Model displayed a multiple correlation and prediction error of R = 0.81, standard error of the estimate = 4.78 ml kg(-1) · min(-1), with measured VO2Peak and good criterion-referenced (CR) agreement into FITNESSGRAM's Healthy Fitness Zone (Kappa = 0.62; percentage agreement = 84.4%; Φ = 0.62). The New Model was validated using k-fold cross-validation and showed homoscedastic residuals across the range of predicted scores. The omission of BMI did not compromise accuracy of the model. In conclusion, the New Model displayed good predictive accuracy and good CR agreement with measured VO2Peak in adolescents aged 13-16 years.