Stevens Warren, Philipson Tomas J, Khan Zeba M, MacEwan Joanna P, Linthicum Mark T, Goldman Dana P
Warren Stevens is a senior research economist at Precision Health Economics in San Francisco, California.
Tomas J. Philipson (
Health Aff (Millwood). 2015 Apr;34(4):562-70. doi: 10.1377/hlthaff.2014.0634.
Health care spending and health outcomes vary markedly across countries, but the association between spending and outcomes remains unclear. This inevitably raises questions as to whether continuing growth in spending is justified, especially relative to the rising cost of cancer care. We compared cancer care across sixteen countries over time, examining changes in cancer spending and two measures of cancer mortality (amenable and excess mortality). We found that compared to low-spending health systems, high-spending systems had consistently lower cancer mortality in the period 1995-2007. Similarly, we found that the countries that increased spending the most had a 17 percent decrease in amenable mortality, compared to 8 percent in the countries with the lowest growth in cancer spending. For excess mortality, the corresponding decreases were 13 percent and 9 percent. Additionally, the rate of decrease for the countries with the highest spending growth was faster than the all-country trend. These findings are consistent with the existence of a link between higher cancer spending and lower cancer mortality. However, further work is needed to investigate the mechanisms that underlie this correlation.
各国的医疗保健支出和健康结果差异显著,但支出与结果之间的关联仍不明确。这不可避免地引发了关于支出持续增长是否合理的问题,尤其是相对于癌症治疗成本的上升而言。我们长期比较了16个国家的癌症治疗情况,研究了癌症支出的变化以及两种癌症死亡率指标(可避免死亡率和超额死亡率)。我们发现,与低支出医疗体系相比,高支出体系在1995年至2007年期间的癌症死亡率一直较低。同样,我们发现,支出增长最多的国家可避免死亡率下降了17%,而癌症支出增长最低的国家这一降幅为8%。对于超额死亡率,相应的降幅分别为13%和9%。此外,支出增长最高的国家的下降速度快于所有国家的总体趋势。这些发现与较高的癌症支出和较低的癌症死亡率之间存在关联这一观点相符。然而,需要进一步开展工作来研究这种相关性背后的机制。