Integration of Random Forest with population-based outlier analyses provides insight on the genomic basis and evolution of run timing in Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha).

Anadromous Chinook salmon populations vary in the period of river entry at the initiation of adult freshwater migration, facilitating optimal arrival at natal spawning. Run timing is a polygenic trait that shows evidence of rapid parallel evolution in some lineages, signifying a key role for this phenotype in the ecological divergence between populations. Studying the genetic basis of local adaptation in quantitative traits is often impractical in wild populations. Therefore, we used a novel approach, Random Forest, to detect markers linked to run timing across 14 populations from contrasting environments in the Columbia River and Puget Sound, USA. The approach permits detection of loci of small effect on the phenotype. Divergence between populations at these loci was then examined using both principle component analysis and FST outlier analyses, to determine whether shared genetic changes resulted in similar phenotypes across different lineages. Sequencing of 9107 RAD markers in 414 individuals identified 33 predictor loci explaining 79.2% of trait variance. Discriminant analysis of principal components of the predictors revealed both shared and unique evolutionary pathways in the trait across different lineages, characterized by minor allele frequency changes. However, genome mapping of predictor loci also identified positional overlap with two genomic outlier regions, consistent with selection on loci of large effect. Therefore, the results suggest selective sweeps on few loci and minor changes in loci that were detected by this study. Use of a polygenic framework has provided initial insight into how divergence in a trait has occurred in the wild.