Lee Yong Ju, Jung Byeong Su, Kim Kee-Tae, Paik Hyun-Dong
Department of Food Science and Biotechnology of Animal Resources, Konkuk University, Seoul 143-701, Republic of Korea.
Bio/Molecular Informatics Center, Konkuk University, Seoul 143-701, Republic of Korea.
Meat Sci. 2015 Sep;107:20-5. doi: 10.1016/j.meatsci.2015.04.006. Epub 2015 Apr 18.
A predictive model was performed to describe the growth of Staphylococcus aureus in raw pork by using Integrated Pathogen Modeling Program 2013 and a polynomial model as a secondary predictive model. S. aureus requires approximately 180 h to reach 5-6 log CFU/g at 10 °C. At 15 °C and 25 °C, approximately 48 and 20 h, respectively, are required to cause food poisoning. Predicted data using the Gompertz model was the most accurate in this study. For lag time (LT) model, bias factor (Bf) and accuracy factor (Af) values were both 1.014, showing that the predictions were within a reliable range. For specific growth rate (SGR) model, Bf and Af were 1.188 and 1.190, respectively. Additionally, both Bf and Af values of the LT and SGR models were close to 1, indicating that IPMP Gompertz model is more adequate for predicting the growth of S. aureus on raw pork than other models.
通过使用2013年综合病原体建模程序和多项式模型作为二级预测模型，构建了一个预测模型来描述金黄色葡萄球菌在生猪肉中的生长情况。金黄色葡萄球菌在10℃下达到5-6 log CFU/g大约需要180小时。在15℃和25℃时，分别大约需要48小时和20小时才会导致食物中毒。在本研究中，使用Gompertz模型预测的数据最为准确。对于延迟时间（LT）模型，偏差因子（Bf）和准确度因子（Af）值均为1.014，表明预测结果在可靠范围内。对于比生长速率（SGR）模型，Bf和Af分别为1.188和1.190。此外，LT和SGR模型的Bf和Af值均接近1，这表明IPMP Gompertz模型比其他模型更适合预测生猪肉中金黄色葡萄球菌的生长情况。
