Spiridonov S I, Ivanov V V
Radiats Biol Radioecol. 2014 Nov-Dec;54(6):621-31.
Based on the literature data analysis, the rationale is given for the use of probabilistic approaches to solve the problems of estimation of a long-lived radionuclide uptake in animal products. Methods for statistical prediction of radioactive contamination consequences for agricultural pasture lands have been devised and implemented in the form of models and program modules. These offer the estimation of radionuclide transfer between the links of an agricultural chain, taking into account variability in the migration parameters, estimation of soil contamination limits based on the preset risk levels for the stuffs produced and statistical coordination of standards. An illustration is given of the application of the above methods using statistical characteristics of 137Cs migration parameters in the soil-plant-animal produce chain. Further trends have been formulated in the development of the risk concept as applied to the assessment of radioecological situations of radioactive contamination of the agricultural land.
基于文献数据分析，阐述了使用概率方法解决动物产品中长寿命放射性核素摄入量估算问题的基本原理。已设计并以模型和程序模块的形式实施了农业牧场放射性污染后果的统计预测方法。这些方法可估算农业链各环节之间的放射性核素转移，同时考虑迁移参数的变异性，根据所生产产品的预设风险水平估算土壤污染限值，并对标准进行统计协调。利用土壤-植物-动物产品链中137Cs迁移参数的统计特征，举例说明了上述方法的应用。针对农用地放射性污染的放射生态状况评估，已阐述了风险概念发展的进一步趋势。
