Immerzeel Walter W, van Beek L P H, Konz M, Shrestha A B, Bierkens M F P
FutureWater, Wageningen, The Netherlands ; Department of Physical Geography, Utrecht University, Utrecht, The Netherlands.
Department of Physical Geography, Utrecht University, Utrecht, The Netherlands.
Clim Change. 2012;110(3-4):721-736. doi: 10.1007/s10584-011-0143-4. Epub 2011 Jul 12.
The analysis of climate change impact on the hydrology of high altitude glacierized catchments in the Himalayas is complex due to the high variability in climate, lack of data, large uncertainties in climate change projection and uncertainty about the response of glaciers. Therefore a high resolution combined cryospheric hydrological model was developed and calibrated that explicitly simulates glacier evolution and all major hydrological processes. The model was used to assess the future development of the glaciers and the runoff using an ensemble of downscaled climate model data in the Langtang catchment in Nepal. The analysis shows that both temperature and precipitation are projected to increase which results in a steady decline of the glacier area. The river flow is projected to increase significantly due to the increased precipitation and ice melt and the transition towards a rain river. Rain runoff and base flow will increase at the expense of glacier runoff. However, as the melt water peak coincides with the monsoon peak, no shifts in the hydrograph are expected.
由于气候高度多变、数据缺乏、气候变化预测存在很大不确定性以及冰川响应的不确定性，分析气候变化对喜马拉雅山脉高海拔冰川化集水区水文的影响十分复杂。因此，开发并校准了一个高分辨率的综合冰冻圈水文模型，该模型明确模拟了冰川演化和所有主要水文过程。利用降尺度气候模型数据集合，该模型被用于评估尼泊尔朗塘集水区冰川的未来发展和径流情况。分析表明，预计气温和降水都会增加，这将导致冰川面积稳步下降。由于降水增加和冰融化以及向雨河的转变，预计河流流量将显著增加。雨水径流和基流将增加，而冰川径流将减少。然而，由于融水峰值与季风峰值重合，预计水文过程线不会发生变化。
