基于贝叶斯时空理论的气象因素对手足口病发病率影响分析

[Analysis on impact of meteorological factors on incidence of hand, foot and mouth disease based on Bayes spatial-temporal theory].

作者信息

Wang Chao, Fang Liqun, Cao Wuchun, Zhang Yingjie, Cao Kai, Xu Qin, Guo Xiuhua

机构信息

School of Public Health, Capital Medical University, Beijing Municipal Key Laboratory of Clinical Epidemiology, Beijing 100069, China.

Institute of Microbiology and Epidemiology, Academy of Military Medical Sciences.

出版信息

Zhonghua Liu Xing Bing Xue Za Zhi. 2015 May;36(5):476-80.

PMID:26080637

Abstract

OBJECTIVE

To understand the impact of meteorological factors on the incidence of hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) and the epidemiological characteristics of HFMD in China.

METHODS

Bayesian hierarchical model [Besag, York, and Mollie' (BYM) model] was used to fit the data. The fitting effects of uncorrelated heterogeneity (UH) model, correlated heterogeneity (CH) model and spatial and temporal interaction model were compared and the best model was selected to analyze the meteorological factors influencing the incidence of HFMD.

RESULTS

The UH+CH model with spatial and temporal interaction had best fitting effect (DIC=35,507.2). Rainfall (RR=1.0517, 95% CI: 1.0504-1.0525), average temperature (RR=1.0896, 95% CI: 1.078 1-1.1069), average relative humidity (RR=1.0890, 95% CI: 1.0821-1.0912), average air pressure (RR=1.0764, 95% CI: 1.0748-1.0779) and hours of sunshine (RR=1.0851, 95% CI: 1.0798-1.0875) were the meteorological factors influencing the incidence of HFMD.

CONCLUSION

The incidence of HFMD had spatial and temporal clustering characteristics. The meteorological factors were closely related with the incidence of HFMD.

摘要

目的

了解气象因素对中国手足口病（HFMD）发病率的影响及HFMD的流行病学特征。

方法

采用贝叶斯层次模型[贝萨格、约克和莫利（BYM）模型]对数据进行拟合。比较不相关异质性（UH）模型、相关异质性（CH）模型以及时空交互模型的拟合效果，选择最佳模型分析影响HFMD发病率的气象因素。

结果

具有时空交互作用的UH+CH模型拟合效果最佳（DIC=35507.2）。降雨（RR=1.0517，95%可信区间：1.0504-1.0525）、平均气温（RR=1.0896，95%可信区间：1.0781-1.1069）、平均相对湿度（RR=1.0890，95%可信区间：1.0821-1.0912）、平均气压（RR=1.0764，95%可信区间：1.0748-1.0779）和日照时数（RR=1.0851，95%可信区间：1.0798-1.0875）是影响HFMD发病率的气象因素。