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过去300年长江中下游地区气温和降水变化所反映的东亚季风信号

East Asian monsoon signals reflected in temperature and precipitation changes over the past 300 years in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River.

作者信息

Hao Zhixin, Sun Di, Zheng Jingyun

机构信息

Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China.

Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China; University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China.

出版信息

PLoS One. 2015 Jun 24;10(6):e0131159. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0131159. eCollection 2015.

Abstract

Based on observational data and Asian monsoon intensity datasets from China, the relationships between the East Asian winter monsoon index and winter temperature, the East Asian summer monsoon index and Meiyu precipitation over the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, were analyzed. We found that the monsoon signals were reflected in the temperature and Meiyu precipitation variations. Thus, we used the reconstructed Meiyu precipitation and winter temperature series for the past 300 years and detected the summer/winter monsoon intensity signals using multi-taper spectral estimation method and wavelet analysis. The main periodicities of Meiyu precipitation and winter temperature, such as interannual cycle with 2-7-year, interdecadal-centennial cycles with 30-40-year and 50-100-year, were found. The good relationships between the East Asian summer and winter monsoons suggested that they were in phase at 31-year cycle, while out of phase at 100-year cycle, but with 20-year phase difference. In addition, the winter monsoon intensity may be regulated by the North Atlantic Oscillation, the Arctic Oscillation and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, and the summer monsoon is closely related to the signal intensities of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation.

摘要

基于观测数据和来自中国的亚洲季风强度数据集,分析了东亚冬季风指数与冬季温度、东亚夏季风指数与长江中下游地区梅雨降水之间的关系。我们发现季风信号反映在温度和梅雨降水变化中。因此,我们使用了过去300年重建的梅雨降水和冬季温度序列,并采用多窗谱估计方法和小波分析检测了夏季/冬季风强度信号。发现了梅雨降水和冬季温度的主要周期,如2 - 7年的年际周期、30 - 40年和50 - 100年的年代际至百年周期。东亚夏季风和冬季风之间的良好关系表明,它们在31年周期时同相位,而在100年周期时异相位,但有20年的相位差。此外,冬季风强度可能受北大西洋涛动、北极涛动和大西洋多年代际振荡的调节,而夏季风与太平洋年代际振荡的信号强度密切相关。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/ac42/4479470/f172e283dadd/pone.0131159.g001.jpg

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