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生物医学研究的未来是什么?

What is the future of biomedical research?

作者信息

Tebala Giovanni Domenico

机构信息

Colorectal and Gastrointestinal Surgery Unit, Department of Surgery, Noble's Hospital, Strang, Douglas, Isle of Man IM4 4RJ, United Kingdom.

出版信息

Med Hypotheses. 2015 Oct;85(4):488-90. doi: 10.1016/j.mehy.2015.07.003. Epub 2015 Jul 10.

Abstract

Randomized controlled trials require hard work and financial commitment, whereas meta-analyses and systematic reviews can be relatively easy to perform and often get published in high impact journals. Many researchers might decide to devote themselves to the latter approach, resulting in a negative impact on clinical research. We have reviewed the number of indexed meta-analyses and systematic reviews on PubMed and compared it with the number of randomized controlled trials over the same period. Statistical analysis showed an exponential increase of synthetic studies with respect to randomized trials. The ratio between RCTs and synthetic studies is quickly decreasing. These results suggest that a growing number of researchers might prefer to commit themselves to synthetic studies more than be involved in more time consuming and funds demanding observational trials. If we are unable to invert this trend, in the future we will have a growing number of synthetic studies utilizing someone else's original data and fewer raw data to base our knowledge upon.

摘要

随机对照试验需要付出艰辛努力和资金投入,而荟萃分析和系统评价实施起来相对容易,且常常发表在高影响力期刊上。许多研究人员可能会决定投身于后一种方法,从而对临床研究产生负面影响。我们回顾了PubMed上索引的荟萃分析和系统评价的数量,并将其与同期随机对照试验的数量进行了比较。统计分析表明,与随机试验相比,综合性研究呈指数级增长。随机对照试验与综合性研究之间的比例正在迅速下降。这些结果表明,越来越多的研究人员可能更倾向于从事综合性研究,而不是参与耗时且资金需求大的观察性试验。如果我们无法扭转这一趋势,未来利用他人原始数据的综合性研究数量将会增加,而可供我们建立知识基础的原始数据将会减少。

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