A stochastic estimate of the economic impact of oral calcium supplementation in postparturient dairy cows.

The objective was to develop stochastic models to estimate the economic impact in the first 30 d in milk of oral calcium supplementation to multiparous postparturient dairy cows using 4 different strategies: (1) supplementation of cows with a high previous lactation mature-equivalent milk yield, (2) supplementation of lame cows, (3) supplementation of both cows that have a high previous lactation mature-equivalent milk yield and cows that are lame, and (4) supplementation of all cows. Data from current literature were used to model input variables associated with the costs and risks related to milk production, postparturient disease, and culling. The mean net herd impact per 1,000 calvings for each of the 4 supplementation strategies was $4,425, $5,812, $8,313, and $3,065, respectively. Postpartum supplementation of multiparous lame cows had the highest return on investment at 6.5 to 1, followed by supplementation of multiparous high milk yield and lame cows, multiparous high milk yield cows only, and supplementation of all multiparous postpartum cows with returns of 1.8 to 1, 1.1 to 1, and 0.3 to 1, respectively. A herd's average milk yield at first test had the highest influence on the net impact of oral calcium supplementation to all multiparous cows and accounted for 30% of the variation, followed by the decrease in risk of health events in lame cows given oral calcium at 22%, a herd's prevalence of lameness at calving at 13%, and the price of milk at 10%. Each of the remaining stochastic variables contributed to less than 5% of the variation in net herd financial impact of oral calcium administration. Whereas supplementation of all postpartum multiparous cows returned a positive net herd impact approximately 80% of the time, if a herd was willing to devote time to mature-equivalent milk yield calculations and locomotion scoring, supplementation of this subpopulation of postpartum cows with oral calcium was estimated to have a positive economic impact in all iterations. Depending on the supplementation strategy chosen and baseline milk yield and immediate postpartum lameness prevalence in a herd, a herd with 1,000 calvings per year can expect to see an average net impact ranging from approximately $3,000 to $8,000 after postpartum supplementation of oral calcium in multiparous animals.