Spetz Joanne
Nurs Econ. 2015 May-Jun;33(3):176-8, 185.
Forecasts of future supply and demand of health professionals are tools to guide policy, not a final statement about how the world will be in the future. Recent forecasts of RN supply and demand vary widely and are incredibly confusing for nurse leaders, nurse educators, and policymakers. To effectively incorporate forecasts into policy and planning, one must understand the structure of the forecasts and underlying assumptions. One should treat all forecasts cautiously, and use them as guides to policy rather than definitive future outcomes.
对卫生专业人员未来供需情况的预测是指导政策的工具,而非对未来世界状况的最终定论。近期对注册护士供需情况的预测差异很大,这让护士领导者、护士教育工作者和政策制定者感到极其困惑。为了有效地将预测纳入政策和规划中,必须了解预测的结构和基本假设。人们应该谨慎对待所有预测,并将其作为政策指导,而非确定的未来结果。