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丹麦对活体进行法医年龄估计的方法:如何进行、涉及多少例以及有哪些新进展?对2012年所处理案例的回顾

The Danish approach to forensic age estimation in the living: how, how many and what's new? A review of cases performed in 2012.

作者信息

Larsen Sara Tangmose, Arge Sara, Lynnerup Niels

机构信息

a University of Copenhagen, Forensic Medicine, Frederik V Vej 11 , Copenhagen , Denmark and.

b Institute of Forensic Medicine , Copenhagen , Denmark.

出版信息

Ann Hum Biol. 2015;42(4):342-7. doi: 10.3109/03014460.2015.1044469. Epub 2015 Aug 13.

Abstract

BACKGROUND

The resulting statement of forensic age estimations in the living is of great consequence for the examinees in question. Concerns have been raised about the nature of these examinations, e.g. the potentially harmful radiographic exposures, as well as the accuracy of the estimated age.

AIM

This manuscript investigates the reported age estimates performed at the Section of Forensic Pathology, Institute of Forensic Medicine, Copenhagen, in 2012.

SUBJECTS AND METHODS

The results of the individual assessments, i.e. the physical examination, and the radiographic examinations of bone age and dental age, were investigated as well as the correlation between the age estimates of the two latter examinations.

RESULTS

In 139 out of the 174 statements, a conclusive chronological age estimate of at least 18 years was given. Although bone age was assessed within the dental age-range in a total of 152 out of 162 cases, some variations in the combined assessments were seen.

CONCLUSION

The current procedure is not mathematically or statistically satisfactory. Instead, the most likely age including the variation and error of the age estimate should be reported in statements. The introduction of a Bayesian approach and the use of post-mortem-imaging-based databases may be used for this purpose.

摘要

背景

关于活体法医年龄估计的结果对相关受检者具有重大影响。人们对这些检查的性质提出了担忧,例如潜在有害的放射学暴露,以及估计年龄的准确性。

目的

本手稿调查了2012年在哥本哈根法医学研究所法医病理学部门进行的报告年龄估计。

对象与方法

研究了个体评估的结果,即体格检查以及骨龄和齿龄的放射学检查,以及后两项检查的年龄估计之间的相关性。

结果

在174份报告中,有139份给出了至少18岁的确切实足年龄估计。尽管在162例病例中的152例中,骨龄是在齿龄范围内评估的,但综合评估中仍存在一些差异。

结论

当前的程序在数学或统计学上并不令人满意。相反,报告中应给出包括年龄估计的变化和误差在内的最可能年龄。为此可引入贝叶斯方法并使用基于死后成像的数据库。

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