Faculty of Law & Economics, Johannes Gutenberg- University Mainz.
School of Psychology, The University of Western Australia.
Psychol Methods. 2015 Dec;20(4):489-505. doi: 10.1037/met0000041. Epub 2015 Aug 31.
Cross-lagged regression coefficients are frequently used to test hypotheses in panel designs. However, these coefficients have particular properties making them difficult to interpret. In particular, cross-lagged regression coefficients may vary, depending on the respective time lags between different sets of measurement occasions. This article introduces the concept of an optimal time lag. Further, it is demonstrated that optimal time lags in panel studies are related to the stabilities of the variables investigated, and that in unidirectional systems, they may be unrelated to the size of possible true effects. The results presented also suggest that optimal time lags for panel designs are usually quite short. Implications are (a) that interpreting cross-lagged regression coefficients requires taking the time lag between measurement occasions into account, and (b) that in much research, far shorter time lags than those frequently found in the literature are justifiable, and we call for more "shortitudinal" studies in the future.
交叉滞后回归系数常用于面板设计中的假设检验。然而，这些系数具有特定的性质，使得它们难以解释。特别是，交叉滞后回归系数可能会有所不同，具体取决于不同测量时间点之间的相应时间滞后。本文介绍了最佳时滞的概念。进一步的，本文表明，面板研究中的最佳时滞与所研究变量的稳定性有关，在单向系统中，它们可能与可能的真实效应的大小无关。研究结果还表明，面板设计的最佳时滞通常很短。这意味着（a）解释交叉滞后回归系数需要考虑测量时间点之间的时间滞后，（b）在很多研究中，比文献中经常发现的时间滞后更短是合理的，我们呼吁未来进行更多的“短向”研究。
