Brown Jessi L, Steenhof Karen, Kochert Michael N, Bond Laura
Program in Ecology, Evolution, and Conservation Biology, University of Nevada, Reno/MS 436, Reno, NV 89557, USA.
Owyhee Desert Studies, 18109 Briar Creek Road, Murphy, ID 83650, USA.
J Wildl Manage. 2013 Jul;77(5):1067-1074. doi: 10.1002/jwmg.566.
Studies of nesting success can be valuable in assessing the status of raptor populations, but differing monitoring protocols can present unique challenges when comparing populations of different species across time or geographic areas. We used large datasets from long-term studies of 3 raptor species to compare estimates of apparent nest success (ANS, the ratio of successful to total number of nesting attempts), Mayfield nesting success, and the logistic-exposure model of nest survival. Golden eagles (), prairie falcons (), and American kestrels () differ in their breeding biology and the methods often used to monitor their reproduction. Mayfield and logistic-exposure models generated similar estimates of nesting success with similar levels of precision. Apparent nest success overestimated nesting success and was particularly sensitive to inclusion of nesting attempts discovered late in the nesting season. Thus, the ANS estimator is inappropriate when exact point estimates are required, especially when most raptor pairs cannot be located before or soon after laying eggs. However, ANS may be sufficient to assess long-term trends of species in which nesting attempts are highly detectable.
巢成功率研究对于评估猛禽种群状况可能具有重要价值，但在比较不同物种在不同时间或地理区域的种群时，不同的监测方案可能会带来独特挑战。我们利用来自3种猛禽长期研究的大型数据集，比较了表观巢成功率（ANS，成功筑巢尝试次数与总筑巢尝试次数之比）、梅菲尔德巢成功率以及巢存活的逻辑暴露模型的估计值。金雕、草原隼和美洲隼在繁殖生物学以及常用于监测其繁殖的方法上存在差异。梅菲尔德模型和逻辑暴露模型产生了精度相似的巢成功率估计值。表观巢成功率高估了巢成功率，并且对纳入筑巢季节后期发现的筑巢尝试特别敏感。因此，当需要精确的点估计时，尤其是当大多数猛禽对在产卵前或产卵后不久无法定位时，ANS估计器是不合适的。然而，对于筑巢尝试极易被发现的物种，ANS可能足以评估其长期趋势。
