[Use of the Monte Carlo method for predicting the outcome of hypertension].

A group of 764 out-patients (359 men and 405 women) was studied 10-24 years after having received clinical treatment for hypertension. After discharge from the clinic 455 patients died. The degree of the disease development was defined in 164 out of 178 survivals. The fate of 131 subjects was unknown. By using the theory of probability and Monte Carlo method we calculated mean times of progress from one class to another (according to Tochowicz's classification) and mean survival times at particular stages of the disease. Hypertension progress from class II to class III was 11.4 years, and survival time measured from the diagnosis to the manifestation of class II was 12.3 years. Progress from class III to class IV was 8.0 years, and survival time of patients with class III was 7.3 years. In class IV patients mean survival time was only 2.5 years. In patients died of hypertension complications mean survival time was 17.1 years. A single control study by using the Monte Carlo method permits a definition of the dynamics in the development of hypertension and duration of its successive stages.