Mochalski W, Kopydłowski J
Folia Med Cracov. 1989;30(3-4):163-9.
A group of 764 out-patients (359 men and 405 women) was studied 10-24 years after having received clinical treatment for hypertension. After discharge from the clinic 455 patients died. The degree of the disease development was defined in 164 out of 178 survivals. The fate of 131 subjects was unknown. By using the theory of probability and Monte Carlo method we calculated mean times of progress from one class to another (according to Tochowicz's classification) and mean survival times at particular stages of the disease. Hypertension progress from class II to class III was 11.4 years, and survival time measured from the diagnosis to the manifestation of class II was 12.3 years. Progress from class III to class IV was 8.0 years, and survival time of patients with class III was 7.3 years. In class IV patients mean survival time was only 2.5 years. In patients died of hypertension complications mean survival time was 17.1 years. A single control study by using the Monte Carlo method permits a definition of the dynamics in the development of hypertension and duration of its successive stages.
对一组764名门诊患者（359名男性和405名女性）进行了研究，这些患者在接受高血压临床治疗后的10至24年。从诊所出院后，有455名患者死亡。在178名存活患者中，有164名患者的疾病发展程度得到了界定。131名受试者的命运未知。通过使用概率理论和蒙特卡罗方法，我们计算了从一个类别进展到另一个类别（根据托乔维茨分类法）的平均时间以及疾病特定阶段的平均生存时间。从II级进展到III级的高血压病程为11.4年，从诊断到II级表现的生存时间为12.3年。从III级进展到IV级的病程为8.0年，III级患者的生存时间为7.3年。IV级患者的平均生存时间仅为2.5年。死于高血压并发症的患者平均生存时间为17.1年。使用蒙特卡罗方法进行的单一对照研究可以确定高血压发展的动态变化及其连续阶段的持续时间。
