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'Predatory' open access: a longitudinal study of article volumes and market characteristics.

作者信息

Shen Cenyu, Björk Bo-Christer

机构信息

Information Systems Science, Hanken School of Economics, PO Box 479, Arkadiankatu 22, Helsinki, 00101, Finland.

出版信息

BMC Med. 2015 Oct 1;13:230. doi: 10.1186/s12916-015-0469-2.


DOI:10.1186/s12916-015-0469-2
PMID:26423063
原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC4589914/
Abstract

BACKGROUND: A negative consequence of the rapid growth of scholarly open access publishing funded by article processing charges is the emergence of publishers and journals with highly questionable marketing and peer review practices. These so-called predatory publishers are causing unfounded negative publicity for open access publishing in general. Reports about this branch of e-business have so far mainly concentrated on exposing lacking peer review and scandals involving publishers and journals. There is a lack of comprehensive studies about several aspects of this phenomenon, including extent and regional distribution. METHODS: After an initial scan of all predatory publishers and journals included in the so-called Beall's list, a sample of 613 journals was constructed using a stratified sampling method from the total of over 11,000 journals identified. Information about the subject field, country of publisher, article processing charge and article volumes published between 2010 and 2014 were manually collected from the journal websites. For a subset of journals, individual articles were sampled in order to study the country affiliation of authors and the publication delays. RESULTS: Over the studied period, predatory journals have rapidly increased their publication volumes from 53,000 in 2010 to an estimated 420,000 articles in 2014, published by around 8,000 active journals. Early on, publishers with more than 100 journals dominated the market, but since 2012 publishers in the 10-99 journal size category have captured the largest market share. The regional distribution of both the publisher's country and authorship is highly skewed, in particular Asia and Africa contributed three quarters of authors. Authors paid an average article processing charge of 178 USD per article for articles typically published within 2 to 3 months of submission. CONCLUSIONS: Despite a total number of journals and publishing volumes comparable to respectable (indexed by the Directory of Open Access Journals) open access journals, the problem of predatory open access seems highly contained to just a few countries, where the academic evaluation practices strongly favor international publication, but without further quality checks.

摘要
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/d7b9/4589914/4e23d4f7386c/12916_2015_469_Fig9_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/d7b9/4589914/d89e5e9d71f3/12916_2015_469_Fig1_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/d7b9/4589914/bbabf0a158c7/12916_2015_469_Fig2_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/d7b9/4589914/f01582370cdd/12916_2015_469_Fig3_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/d7b9/4589914/91a5c27fc6c8/12916_2015_469_Fig4_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/d7b9/4589914/dfb93c29b8ca/12916_2015_469_Fig5_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/d7b9/4589914/79698924eda7/12916_2015_469_Fig6_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/d7b9/4589914/5e5a17ad1fc5/12916_2015_469_Fig7_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/d7b9/4589914/193af2b93c45/12916_2015_469_Fig8_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/d7b9/4589914/4e23d4f7386c/12916_2015_469_Fig9_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/d7b9/4589914/d89e5e9d71f3/12916_2015_469_Fig1_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/d7b9/4589914/bbabf0a158c7/12916_2015_469_Fig2_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/d7b9/4589914/f01582370cdd/12916_2015_469_Fig3_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/d7b9/4589914/91a5c27fc6c8/12916_2015_469_Fig4_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/d7b9/4589914/dfb93c29b8ca/12916_2015_469_Fig5_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/d7b9/4589914/79698924eda7/12916_2015_469_Fig6_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/d7b9/4589914/5e5a17ad1fc5/12916_2015_469_Fig7_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/d7b9/4589914/193af2b93c45/12916_2015_469_Fig8_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/d7b9/4589914/4e23d4f7386c/12916_2015_469_Fig9_HTML.jpg

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引用本文的文献

[1]
Estimating the predictability of questionable open-access journals.

Sci Adv. 2025-8-29

[2]
[Scientific fraud and dubious publication practices].

Med Klin Intensivmed Notfmed. 2025-8-7

[3]
Journals Operating Predatory Practices Are Systematically Eroding the Science Ethos: A Gate and Code Strategy to Minimise Their Operating Space and Restore Research Best Practice.

Microb Biotechnol. 2025-6

[4]
What Sets Indexed Orthopaedic Journals Apart? A Comparative Analysis of Quality Metrics Between Indexed Orthopaedic Journals and Nonindexed Orthopaedic Journals.

JB JS Open Access. 2025-4-14

[5]
Financial barriers in urology publishing: an analysis of legitimate and predatory journals.

ANZ J Surg. 2025-4

[6]
The Presence of Predatory and Open Access Journal Publications Among Canadian Plastic Surgery Residency Applicants.

Plast Surg (Oakv). 2024-12-9

[7]
Trends in scientific publishing: does quantity compromises quality in life sciences and medicine?

Syst Rev. 2024-10-1

[8]
[Predatory journals: What are they and how to avoid them?].

Rev Med Inst Mex Seguro Soc. 2024-1-8

[9]
An Analysis of Solicitations From Predatory Journals in Ophthalmology.

Am J Ophthalmol. 2024-8

[10]
Predatory publishing in medical education: a rapid scoping review.

BMC Med Educ. 2024-1-5

本文引用的文献

[1]
Firm action needed on predatory journals.

BMJ. 2015-1-16

[2]
Open-access website gets tough.

Nature. 2014-8-7

[3]
Penetrating the omerta of predatory publishing: the romanian connection.

Sci Eng Ethics. 2015-2

[4]
Who's afraid of peer review?

Science. 2013-10-4

[5]
Investigating journals: The dark side of publishing.

Nature. 2013-3-28

[6]
Anatomy of open access publishing: a study of longitudinal development and internal structure.

BMC Med. 2012-10-22

[7]
Predatory publishers are corrupting open access.

Nature. 2012-9-13

[8]
The development of open access journal publishing from 1993 to 2009.

PLoS One. 2011-6-13

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