Predicting the Occurrence of Hypotension in Stable Patients With Nonvariceal Upper Gastrointestinal Bleeding: Point-of-Care Lactate Testing.

OBJECTIVES

It is difficult to assess risk in normotensive patients with upper gastrointestinal bleeding. The aim of this study was to evaluate whether the initial lactate value can predict the in-hospital occurrence of hypotension in stable patients with acute nonvariceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding.

DESIGN

Retrospective, observational, single-center study.

SETTING

Emergency department of a tertiary-care, university-affiliated hospital during a 5-year period.

PATIENTS

Medical records of 3,489 patients with acute upper gastrointestinal bleeding who were normotensive at presentation to the emergency department. We analyzed the ability of point-of-care testing of lactate at emergency department admission to predict hypotension development (defined as systolic blood pressure <90 mm Hg) within 24 hours after emergency department admission.

INTERVENTIONS

None.

MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS

Of the 1,003 patients with acute nonvariceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding, 157 patients experienced hypotension within 24 hours. Lactate was independently associated with hypotension development (odds ratio, 1.6; 95% CI, 1.4-1.7), and the risk of hypotension significantly increased as the lactate increased from 2.5-4.9 mmol/L (odds ratio, 2.2) to 5.0-7.4 mmol/L (odds ratio, 4.0) and to greater than or equal to 7.5 mmol/L (odds ratio, 39.2) (p<0.001). Lactate elevation (≥2.5 mmol/L) was associated with 90% specificity and an 84% negative predictive value for hypotension development. When the lactate levels were greater than 5.0 mmol/L, the specificity and negative predictive value increased to 98% and 87%, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Point-of-care testing of lactate can predict in-hospital occurrence of hypotension in stable patients with acute nonvariceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding. However, subsequently, prospective validate research will be required to clarify this.