Durham Catherine A, Bouma Andrea, Meunier-Goddik Lisbeth
Department of Applied Economics, Food Innovation Center, Oregon State University, Portland 97209.
Department of Food Science and Technology, Oregon State University, Corvallis 97331.
J Dairy Sci. 2015 Dec;98(12):8319-32. doi: 10.3168/jds.2014-9252. Epub 2015 Oct 21.
Artisan cheese makers lack access to valid economic data to help them evaluate business opportunities and make important business decisions such as determining cheese pricing structure. The objective of this study was to utilize an economic model to evaluate the net present value (NPV), internal rate of return, and payback period for artisan cheese production at different annual production volumes. The model was also used to determine the minimum retail price necessary to ensure positive NPV for 5 different cheese types produced at 4 different production volumes. Milk type, cheese yield, and aging time all affected variable costs. However, aged cheeses required additional investment for aging space (which needs to be larger for longer aging times), as did lower yield cheeses (by requiring larger-volume equipment for pasteurization and milk handling). As the volume of milk required increased, switching from vat pasteurization to high-temperature, short-time pasteurization was necessary for low-yield cheeses before being required for high-yield cheeses, which causes an additional increase in investment costs. Because of these differences, high-moisture, fresh cow milk cheeses can be sold for about half the price of hard, aged goat milk cheeses at the largest production volume or for about two-thirds the price at the lowest production volume examined. For example, for the given model assumptions, at an annual production of 13,608kg of cheese (30,000 lb), a fresh cow milk mozzarella should be sold at a minimum retail price of $27.29/kg ($12.38/lb), whereas a goat milk Gouda needs a minimum retail price of $49.54/kg ($22.47/lb). Artisan cheese makers should carefully evaluate annual production volumes. Although larger production volumes decrease average fixed cost and improve production efficiency, production can reach volumes where it becomes necessary to sell through distributors. Because distributors might pay as little as 35% of retail price, the retail price needs to be higher to compensate. An artisan cheese company that has not achieved the recognition needed to achieve a premium price may not find distribution through distributors profitable.
手工奶酪制造商无法获取有效的经济数据来帮助他们评估商业机会并做出重要的商业决策,比如确定奶酪的定价结构。本研究的目的是利用一个经济模型来评估不同年产量下手工奶酪生产的净现值(NPV)、内部收益率和投资回收期。该模型还用于确定在4种不同产量下生产5种不同类型奶酪时,为确保净现值为正所需的最低零售价格。牛奶类型、奶酪产量和陈化时间都会影响可变成本。然而,陈化奶酪需要额外投资用于陈化空间(陈化时间越长,所需空间越大),低产量奶酪也是如此(因为需要更大容量的设备进行巴氏杀菌和牛奶处理)。随着所需牛奶量的增加,低产量奶酪在高产量奶酪之前就需要从批量巴氏杀菌转换为高温短时巴氏杀菌,这会导致投资成本进一步增加。由于这些差异,在最大产量时,高水分的新鲜牛奶奶酪的售价约为硬质陈化山羊奶酪的一半,在考察的最低产量时约为其三分之二。例如,在给定的模型假设下,当年产奶酪13,608千克(30,000磅)时,新鲜牛奶马苏里拉奶酪的最低零售价格应为27.29美元/千克(12.38美元/磅),而山羊奶酪高达的最低零售价格需要49.54美元/千克(22.47美元/磅)。手工奶酪制造商应仔细评估年产量。虽然更大的产量会降低平均固定成本并提高生产效率,但产量可能会达到需要通过经销商销售的程度。因为经销商可能只支付零售价的35%,所以零售价需要更高才能得到补偿。一家尚未获得获得高价所需认可的手工奶酪公司可能会发现通过经销商销售无利可图。