Heersink Daniel K, Caley Peter, Paini Dean R, Barry Simon C
Commonwealth Scientific & Industrial Research Organisation, Canberra, Australia.
Risk Anal. 2016 May;36(5):892-903. doi: 10.1111/risa.12476. Epub 2015 Oct 20.
The cost of an uncontrolled incursion of invasive alien species (IAS) arising from undetected entry through ports can be substantial, and knowledge of port-specific risks is needed to help allocate limited surveillance resources. Quantifying the establishment likelihood of such an incursion requires quantifying the ability of a species to enter, establish, and spread. Estimation of the approach rate of IAS into ports provides a measure of likelihood of entry. Data on the approach rate of IAS are typically sparse, and the combinations of risk factors relating to country of origin and port of arrival diverse. This presents challenges to making formal statistical inference on establishment likelihood. Here we demonstrate how these challenges can be overcome with judicious use of mixed-effects models when estimating the incursion likelihood into Australia of the European (Apis mellifera) and Asian (A. cerana) honeybees, along with the invasive parasites of biosecurity concern they host (e.g., Varroa destructor). Our results demonstrate how skewed the establishment likelihood is, with one-tenth of the ports accounting for 80% or more of the likelihood for both species. These results have been utilized by biosecurity agencies in the allocation of resources to the surveillance of maritime ports.
通过港口未被检测到的入侵而导致的外来入侵物种（IAS）失控入侵的成本可能很高，因此需要了解特定港口的风险，以帮助分配有限的监测资源。量化此类入侵的定殖可能性需要量化物种进入、定殖和扩散的能力。估计IAS进入港口的接近率可衡量进入的可能性。关于IAS接近率的数据通常很稀少，而且与原产国和抵达港口相关的风险因素组合多种多样。这给对定殖可能性进行正式统计推断带来了挑战。在此，我们展示了在估计欧洲蜜蜂（西方蜜蜂）和亚洲蜜蜂（东方蜜蜂）及其携带的具有生物安全隐患的入侵寄生虫（如狄斯瓦螨）进入澳大利亚的入侵可能性时，如何通过明智地使用混合效应模型来克服这些挑战。我们的结果表明定殖可能性是多么不均衡，十分之一的港口占两种蜜蜂定殖可能性的80%或更多。这些结果已被生物安全机构用于在海港监测资源的分配。
