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温度和湿度对澳大利亚达尔文市医院发病率的影响

Temperature and Humidity Effects on Hospital Morbidity in Darwin, Australia.

作者信息

Goldie James, Sherwood Steven C, Green Donna, Alexander Lisa

机构信息

ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Systems Science, University of New South Wales, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia; Climate Change Research Centre, University of New South Wales, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia.

ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Systems Science, University of New South Wales, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia; Climate Change Research Centre, University of New South Wales, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia.

出版信息

Ann Glob Health. 2015 May-Jun;81(3):333-41. doi: 10.1016/j.aogh.2015.07.003.

Abstract

BACKGROUND

Many studies have explored the relationship between temperature and health in the context of a changing climate, but few have considered the effects of humidity, particularly in tropical locations, on human health and well-being. To investigate this potential relationship, this study assessed the main and interacting effects of daily temperature and humidity on hospital admission rates for selected heat-relevant diagnoses in Darwin, Australia.

METHODS

Univariate and bivariate Poisson generalized linear models were used to find statistically significant predictors and the admission rates within bins of predictors were compared to explore nonlinear effects.

FINDINGS

The analysis indicated that nighttime humidity was the most statistically significant predictor (P < 0.001), followed by daytime temperature and average daily humidity (P < 0.05). There was no evidence of a significant interaction between them or other predictors. The nighttime humidity effect appeared to be strongly nonlinear: Hot days appeared to have higher admission rates when they were preceded by high nighttime humidity.

CONCLUSIONS

From this analysis, we suggest that heat-health policies in tropical regions similar to Darwin need to accommodate the effects of temperature and humidity at different times of day.

摘要

背景

许多研究探讨了气候变化背景下温度与健康之间的关系,但很少有研究考虑湿度,特别是在热带地区,对人类健康和福祉的影响。为了研究这种潜在关系,本研究评估了每日温度和湿度对澳大利亚达尔文市选定的与热相关诊断的住院率的主要影响和交互影响。

方法

使用单变量和双变量泊松广义线性模型来寻找具有统计学意义的预测因素,并比较预测因素区间内的住院率以探索非线性影响。

结果

分析表明,夜间湿度是最具统计学意义的预测因素(P < 0.001),其次是白天温度和日平均湿度(P < 0.05)。没有证据表明它们之间或其他预测因素之间存在显著交互作用。夜间湿度效应似乎具有强烈的非线性:在夜间湿度较高之后出现的炎热日子似乎住院率更高。

结论

通过该分析,我们建议,与达尔文市类似的热带地区的热健康政策需要考虑一天中不同时间的温度和湿度影响。

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