Jonsson Anders, Bergqvist Anders, Andersson Ragnar
Division of Risk Management, Department of Health and Environmental Sciences, Karlstad University, Karlstad SE-651 88, Sweden; Evaluation & Monitoring Department, Swedish Civil Contingencies Agency, Karlstad SE-651 81, Sweden.
Swedish Fire Protection Association, Stockholm SE-115 87, Sweden.
J Safety Res. 2015 Dec;55:99-103. doi: 10.1016/j.jsr.2015.10.001. Epub 2015 Oct 23.
Fire-related fatalities and injuries have become a growing governmental concern in Sweden, and a national vision zero strategy has been adopted stating that nobody should get killed or seriously injured from fires. There is considerable uncertainty, however, regarding the numbers of both deaths and injuries due to fires. Different national sources present different numbers, even on deaths, which obstructs reliable surveillance of the problem over time. We assume the situation is similar in other countries. This study seeks to assess the true number of fire-related deaths in Sweden by combining sources, and to verify the coverage of each individual source. By doing so, we also wish to demonstrate the possibilities of improved surveillance practices.
Data from three national sources were collected and matched; a special database on fatal fires held by The Swedish Contingencies Agency (nationally responsible for fire prevention), a database on forensic medical examinations held by the National Board of Forensic Medicine, and the cause of death register held by the Swedish National Board of Health and Welfare.
The results disclose considerable underreporting in the single sources. The national database on fatal fires, serving as the principal source for policy making on fire prevention matters, underestimates the true situation by 20%. Its coverage of residential fires appears to be better than other fires.
Systematic safety work and informed policy-making presuppose access to correct and reliable numbers. By combining several different sources, as suggested in this study, the national database on fatal fires is now considerably improved and includes regular matching with complementary sources.
在瑞典，与火灾相关的伤亡事件日益引起政府关注，因此该国已采用全国性的零事故愿景战略，即任何人都不应因火灾而丧生或受重伤。然而，关于火灾造成的死亡和受伤人数存在相当大的不确定性。不同的国家数据源给出的数字不同，甚至在死亡人数上也是如此，这阻碍了对该问题进行长期可靠的监测。我们认为其他国家的情况也类似。本研究旨在通过整合数据源来评估瑞典与火灾相关的实际死亡人数，并核实每个单独数据源的覆盖范围。通过这样做，我们还希望展示改进监测方法的可能性。
收集并匹配了来自三个国家数据源的数据；瑞典应急管理局（负责全国火灾预防）持有的重大火灾特别数据库、国家法医委员会持有的法医检查数据库以及瑞典国家卫生和福利委员会持有的死亡原因登记册。
结果显示各个单独数据源存在大量漏报情况。作为火灾预防政策制定主要来源的全国重大火灾数据库，对实际情况的低估达20%。其对住宅火灾的覆盖似乎优于其他火灾。
系统的安全工作和明智的政策制定以获取正确可靠的数据为前提。如本研究中所建议的那样，通过整合多个不同数据源，全国重大火灾数据库现在有了显著改进，并且包括与补充数据源的定期匹配。
