Department of Biological Sciences, Florida Institute of Technology, Melbourne, FL, USA.
Glob Chang Biol. 2016 Mar;22(3):1145-54. doi: 10.1111/gcb.13166. Epub 2015 Dec 22.
Coral reefs have recently experienced an unprecedented decline as the world's oceans continue to warm. Yet global climate models reveal a heterogeneously warming ocean, which has initiated a search for refuges, where corals may survive in the near future. We hypothesized that some turbid nearshore environments may act as climate-change refuges, shading corals from the harmful interaction between high sea-surface temperatures and high irradiance. We took a hierarchical Bayesian approach to determine the expected distribution of 12 coral species in the Indian and Pacific Oceans, between the latitudes 37°N and 37°S, under representative concentration pathway 8.5 (W m(-2) ) by 2100. The turbid nearshore refuges identified in this study were located between latitudes 20-30°N and 15-25°S, where there was a strong coupling between turbidity and tidal fluctuations. Our model predicts that turbidity will mitigate high temperature bleaching for 9% of shallow reef habitat (to 30 m depth) - habitat that was previously considered inhospitable under ocean warming. Our model also predicted that turbidity will protect some coral species more than others from climate-change-associated thermal stress. We also identified locations where consistently high turbidity will likely reduce irradiance to <250 μmol m(-2) s(-1) , and predict that 16% of reef-coral habitat ≤30 m will preclude coral growth and reef development. Thus, protecting the turbid nearshore refuges identified in this study, particularly in the northwestern Hawaiian Islands, the northern Philippines, the Ryukyu Islands (Japan), eastern Vietnam, western and eastern Australia, New Caledonia, the northern Red Sea, and the Arabian Gulf, should become part of a judicious global strategy for reef-coral persistence under climate change.
由于世界海洋持续变暖,珊瑚礁最近经历了前所未有的衰退。然而,全球气候模型显示海洋正在发生异乎寻常的变暖,这引发了人们对避难所的寻找,在那里珊瑚可能在不久的将来得以生存。我们假设一些混浊的近岸环境可能充当气候变化的避难所,使珊瑚免受高海面温度和高光强之间有害相互作用的影响。我们采用分层贝叶斯方法,根据代表性浓度路径 8.5(W m(-2)),确定了纬度在 37°N 到 37°S 之间的印度洋和太平洋中 12 种珊瑚物种在 2100 年之前的预期分布。本研究中确定的混浊近岸避难所位于北纬 20-30°和南纬 15-25°之间,那里混浊度和潮汐波动之间存在强烈耦合。我们的模型预测,混浊度将减轻浅海珊瑚礁栖息地(至 30 米深度)中 9%的高温白化现象——在海洋变暖的情况下,这些栖息地曾被认为不适宜居住。我们的模型还预测,混浊度将保护某些珊瑚物种免受与气候变化相关的热应激的影响超过其他物种。我们还确定了一些位置,那里持续高混浊度可能会将光照强度降低到<250 μmol m(-2) s(-1),并预测 16%的珊瑚礁珊瑚栖息地≤30 米将阻止珊瑚生长和珊瑚礁发育。因此,保护本研究中确定的混浊近岸避难所,特别是在夏威夷群岛西北部、菲律宾北部、琉球群岛(日本)、越南东部、澳大利亚西部和东部、新喀里多尼亚、北红海和阿拉伯湾,应该成为明智的全球珊瑚礁生存策略的一部分,以应对气候变化。