The Loss of Beneficial Thermal Priming on Global Coral Reefs.

Warm-season marine heatwaves (MHWs) have greatly increased in frequency, severity, and extent over the last few decades, driving more frequent and severe coral bleaching episodes. Given the grave near-term threat to coral reefs imposed by MHWs, it is important to assess the mechanisms by which corals may acquire higher thermal tolerance. Recent field and laboratory studies have demonstrated that exposure to sublethal heat stress, known as "priming," can reduce bleaching susceptibility during a subsequent MHW. Little is known, however, about how often priming conditions occur, and how effective those conditions may be at protecting coral reefs. We employed a global historical coral bleaching database and a high-resolution sea surface temperature dataset to assess the frequency of priming and examine its effect on coral bleaching sensitivity on a global scale. The analysis showed that coral reefs in parts of the western to central tropical Pacific experienced priming on average over twice a decade and had a higher likelihood of priming protection. Mixed-effects regression models indicated that priming conditions could mitigate coral bleaching response by up to 12% in advance of a moderate MHW. However, the protective effect of priming decreased, and even became harmful, with more severe MHWs. We detected spatial variations in priming frequency that could provide insight for conservation planning and explain some variations in bleaching sensitivity to MHWs. Even so, our findings suggest that thermal priming will not be sufficient to protect most coral reefs from MHWs in the future, without substantial efforts to mitigate climate change.