Center for Logic, Language, and Cognition, University of Turin.
Center for Mind/Brain Science, University of Trento.
Psychol Rev. 2016 Jan;123(1):97-102. doi: 10.1037/a0039539.
According to Costello and Watts (2014), probability theory can account for key findings in human judgment research provided that random noise is embedded in the model. We concur with a number of Costello and Watts's remarks, but challenge the empirical adequacy of their model in one of their key illustrations (the conjunction fallacy) on the basis of recent experimental findings. We also discuss how our argument bears on heuristic and rational thinking.
根据科斯特洛和瓦茨（2014 年）的观点，概率理论可以解释人类判断研究中的一些关键发现，只要模型中嵌入了随机噪声。我们同意科斯特洛和瓦茨的一些观点，但基于最近的实验发现，对他们模型在一个关键示例（合取谬误）中的实证充分性提出了挑战。我们还讨论了我们的观点如何影响启发式和理性思维。
Zotero 插件