Forbes W F, Thompson M E
Can J Public Health. 1989 Jul-Aug;80(4):282-90.
Various generators of risk which are believed to be important, namely unhealthy diet, hazardous occupations, smoking, poverty, radiation and chance of war are considered. The considerations which are relevant for policy in risk evaluation are taken to be the magnitude of the risk, the strength of the evidence that the risk is real, the size of the population at risk and the ease of modification of a behaviour involving risk. Various measures for judging risk are outlined, including mortality rates, relative mortality rates, morbidity measures, and more extensively the analysis of "costs and benefits". The importance of longitudinal studies is stressed. A theoretical framework is presented to describe formally how risk can be quantified. This is followed by a discussion of risks associated with specific hazardous activities. It is suggested that among those considered, poverty and nuclear war represent the greatest risks, followed by smoking and, in decreasing order of priority, industrial risks and poor diet.
人们考虑了各种被认为很重要的风险因素，即不健康的饮食、危险职业、吸烟、贫困、辐射和战争风险。在风险评估中与政策相关的考虑因素包括风险的大小、风险真实存在的证据强度、受影响人群的规模以及涉及风险的行为改变的难易程度。概述了各种判断风险的方法，包括死亡率、相对死亡率、发病率指标，以及更广泛的“成本效益”分析。强调了纵向研究的重要性。提出了一个理论框架来正式描述如何对风险进行量化。随后讨论了与特定危险活动相关的风险。有人认为，在这些因素中，贫困和核战争代表了最大的风险，其次是吸烟，然后按优先顺序递减依次是工业风险和不良饮食。
