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使用有偏向性技术进行性别选择及其对人口性别比的影响。

Sex selection with biased technologies and its effect on the population sex ratio.

作者信息

Mason A, Bennett N G

出版信息

Demography. 1977 Aug;14(3):285-96.

PMID:268293
Abstract

Current biomedical research on sex selection techniques may soon offer couples the opportunity to choose the sex of their children with greater certainty. A technique planned for marketing by mid-1978 can increase the probability of bearing a son to as much as 0.90. However, couples who wish to improve their chances of bearing a daughter have no such opportunity. The purpose of this paper is two-fold. First, a decision-making model is provided which describes how couples should choose among alternative sex-selection methods so as to maximize the probability of bearing their desired number of sons and daughters. Second, the effect of the widespread use of sex-selection techniques on the population sex ratio is explored. It is shown that even if populations have unbiased sex preferences, or sex preferences biased towards daughters, the use of biased sex-selection technologies may result in very high population sex ratios.

摘要

当前关于性别选择技术的生物医学研究可能很快会让夫妻有机会更确定地选择孩子的性别。一项计划于1978年年中推向市场的技术可以将生男孩的概率提高到0.90。然而,希望提高生女孩几率的夫妻却没有这样的机会。本文有两个目的。首先,提供一个决策模型,描述夫妻应如何在不同的性别选择方法中进行选择,以便最大程度地提高生育他们期望数量的儿子和女儿的概率。其次,探讨性别选择技术的广泛使用对人口性别比的影响。结果表明,即使人群没有偏向性别的偏好,或者偏好女孩,使用有偏向性的性别选择技术也可能导致非常高的人口性别比。

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