Lin Jinyao, Li Xia
Guangdong Key Laboratory for Urbanization and Geo-simulation, School of Geography and Planning, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, 510275, PR China.
Guangdong Key Laboratory for Urbanization and Geo-simulation, School of Geography and Planning, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, 510275, PR China.
J Environ Manage. 2016 Apr 1;170:177-85. doi: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2015.11.036. Epub 2016 Jan 30.
Zoning eco-protected areas is important for ecological conservation and environmental management. Rapid and continuous urban expansion, however, may exert negative effects on the performance of practical zoning designs. Various methods have been developed for protected area zoning, but most of them failed to consider the conflicts between urban development (for the benefit of land developers) and ecological protection (local government). Some real-world zoning schemes even have to be modified occasionally after the lengthy negotiations between the government and land developers. Therefore, our study has presented a game theory-based method to deal with this problem. Future urban expansion in the study area will be predicted by a logistic regression cellular automaton, while eco-protected areas will be delimitated using multi-objective optimization algorithm. Then, two types of conflicts between them can be resolved based on game theory, a theory of decision-making. We established a two-person dynamic game for each conflict zone. The ecological compensation mechanism was taken into account by simulating the negotiation processes between the government and land developers. A final zoning scheme can be obtained when the two sides reach agreements. The proposed method is applied to the eco-protected area zoning in Guangzhou, a fast-growing city in China. The experiments indicate that the conflicts between eco-protection and urban development will inevitably arise when using only traditional zoning methods. Based on game theory, our method can effectively resolve those conflicts, and can provide a relatively reasonable zoning scheme. This method is expected to support policy-making in environmental management and urban planning.
划定生态保护区对于生态保护和环境管理至关重要。然而，快速且持续的城市扩张可能会对实际划定方案的实施产生负面影响。已开发出多种用于保护区划定的方法，但其中大多数未能考虑城市发展（为土地开发商谋利）与生态保护（地方政府）之间的冲突。一些实际的划定方案甚至在政府与土地开发商进行漫长谈判后，还需偶尔进行修改。因此，我们的研究提出了一种基于博弈论的方法来解决这一问题。研究区域未来的城市扩张将通过逻辑回归元胞自动机进行预测，而生态保护区将使用多目标优化算法进行划定。然后，基于决策理论的博弈论可以解决它们之间的两类冲突。我们为每个冲突区域建立了一个两人动态博弈。通过模拟政府与土地开发商之间的谈判过程来考虑生态补偿机制。当双方达成协议时，即可获得最终的划定方案。所提出的方法应用于中国快速发展的城市广州的生态保护区划定。实验表明，仅使用传统划定方法时，生态保护与城市发展之间的冲突将不可避免地出现。基于博弈论，我们的方法能够有效解决这些冲突，并能提供一个相对合理的划定方案。该方法有望为环境管理和城市规划中的政策制定提供支持。
