Chemoprevention of breast cancer.

The hypothesis that oestrogen is an important promoter of human breast cancer raises the possibility that endocrine intervention could prevent the disease. Various methods of reducing oestrogenic activity have been proposed including dietary control, progestin therapy, and ovarian ablation. Tamoxifen is a synthetic anti-oestrogen of low toxicity with proven anti-proliferative activity in endocrine sensitive breast cancer which makes it an attractive alternative for a trial of endocrine prevention. We have undertaken a double-blind placebo-controlled pilot study to assess the feasibility of mounting a large multicentre study of tamoxifen in the prevention of breast cancer in high risk women. Two hundred women were randomised to tamoxifen or placebo during an 18 month accrual period. Acute toxicity was mild and serial studies of blood lipids, clotting factors, and bone mineral density suggested that no long-term deleterious effects are likely to be seen. It is estimated that 10,000 women would be required with a 10-15 year follow up in order to detect a 25% prevention effect.