Marine Science Institute, University of Texas at Austin, 750 Channel View Drive, Port Aransas, TX, 78373, USA.
Department of Geography, Environment, and Society, University of Minnesota, Geography Room 414, Minneapolis, MN, 55455, USA.
Glob Chang Biol. 2016 Jul;22(7):2582-95. doi: 10.1111/gcb.13256. Epub 2016 Apr 4.
High-resolution biogenic and geologic proxies in which one increment or layer is formed per year are crucial to describing natural ranges of environmental variability in Earth's physical and biological systems. However, dating controls are necessary to ensure temporal precision and accuracy; simple counts cannot ensure that all layers are placed correctly in time. Originally developed for tree-ring data, crossdating is the only such procedure that ensures all increments have been assigned the correct calendar year of formation. Here, we use growth-increment data from two tree species, two marine bivalve species, and a marine fish species to illustrate sensitivity of environmental signals to modest dating error rates. When falsely added or missed increments are induced at one and five percent rates, errors propagate back through time and eliminate high-frequency variability, climate signals, and evidence of extreme events while incorrectly dating and distorting major disturbances or other low-frequency processes. Our consecutive Monte Carlo experiments show that inaccuracies begin to accumulate in as little as two decades and can remove all but decadal-scale processes after as little as two centuries. Real-world scenarios may have even greater consequence in the absence of crossdating. Given this sensitivity to signal loss, the fundamental tenets of crossdating must be applied to fully resolve environmental signals, a point we underscore as the frontiers of growth-increment analysis continue to expand into tropical, freshwater, and marine environments.
高分辨率的生物成因和地质成因代理,其中每年形成一个增量或一层,对于描述地球物理和生物系统中环境变化的自然范围至关重要。然而,为了确保时间精度和准确性,需要进行定年控制;简单的计数并不能确保所有的层都被正确地放置在时间上。交叉定年最初是为树木年轮数据开发的,是唯一能确保所有增量都被正确分配形成年份的程序。在这里,我们使用两种树木、两种海洋双壳类动物和一种海洋鱼类的生长增量数据来说明环境信号对适度定年误差率的敏感性。当以百分之一和百分之五的速率误增或漏增增量时,错误会回溯到过去,消除高频可变性、气候信号以及极端事件的证据,同时错误地定年并扭曲主要干扰或其他低频过程。我们的连续蒙特卡罗实验表明,不准确的情况仅在短短二十年就开始积累,在不到两个世纪的时间里就可以消除除了十年尺度的过程。在没有交叉定年的情况下,实际情况可能会产生更大的后果。鉴于这种对信号丢失的敏感性,必须应用交叉定年的基本原则来充分解析环境信号,这一点我们强调,因为生长增量分析的前沿继续扩展到热带、淡水和海洋环境。