Johns Annie F, Graham Scarlett E, Harris Meagan J, Markiewicz April J, Stinson Jonah M, Landis Wayne G
Environmental Science, Western Washington University, Bellingham, Washington, USA.
Institute of Environmental Toxicology, Huxley College of the Environment, Western Washington University, Bellingham, Washington, USA.
Integr Environ Assess Manag. 2017 Jan;13(1):100-114. doi: 10.1002/ieam.1765. Epub 2016 Apr 27.
We have conducted a series of regional scale risk assessments using the Bayesian Network Relative Risk Model (BN-RRM) to evaluate the efficacy of 2 remediation options in the reduction of risks to the South River and upper Shenandoah River study area. The 2 remediation options were 1) bank stabilization (BST) and 2) the implementation of best management practices for agriculture (AgBMPs) to reduce Hg input in to the river. Eight endpoints were chosen to be part of the risk assessment, based on stakeholder input. Although Hg contamination was the original impetus for the site being remediated, multiple chemical and physical stressors were evaluated in this analysis. Specific models were built that incorporated the changes expected from AgBMP and BST and were based on our previous research. Changes in risk were calculated, and sensitivity and influence analyses were conducted on the models. The assessments indicated that AgBMP would only slightly change risk in the study area but that negative impacts were also unlikely. Bank stabilization would reduce risk to Hg for the smallmouth bass and belted kingfisher and increase risk to abiotic water quality endpoints. However, if care were not taken to prevent loss of nesting habitat to belted kingfisher, an increase in risk to that species would occur. Because Hg was only one of several stressors contributing to risk, the change in risk depended on the specific endpoint. Sensitivity analysis provided a list of variables to be measured as part of a monitoring program. Influence analysis provided the range of maximum and minimum risk values for each endpoint and remediation option. This research demonstrates the applicability of ecological risk assessment and specifically the BN-RRM as part of a long-term adaptive management scheme for managing contaminated sites. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2017;13:100-114. © 2016 SETAC.
我们使用贝叶斯网络相对风险模型（BN-RRM）进行了一系列区域尺度的风险评估，以评估两种修复方案在降低对南河和谢南多厄河上游研究区域风险方面的效果。这两种修复方案分别是：1）河岸稳定（BST）；2）实施农业最佳管理措施（AgBMPs）以减少河流中的汞输入。根据利益相关者的意见，选择了八个端点作为风险评估的一部分。尽管汞污染是该场地进行修复的最初动因，但在本分析中评估了多种化学和物理压力源。基于我们之前的研究，构建了特定模型，该模型纳入了AgBMP和BST预期产生的变化。计算了风险变化，并对模型进行了敏感性和影响分析。评估表明，AgBMP只会使研究区域的风险略有变化，但负面影响也不太可能发生。河岸稳定将降低小口黑鲈和带斑翠鸟面临的汞风险，并增加非生物水质端点的风险。然而，如果不注意防止带斑翠鸟筑巢栖息地的丧失，该物种面临的风险将会增加。由于汞只是导致风险的几种压力源之一，风险变化取决于具体的端点。敏感性分析提供了作为监测计划一部分需要测量的变量列表。影响分析提供了每个端点和修复方案的最大和最小风险值范围。本研究证明了生态风险评估，特别是BN-RRM作为管理受污染场地的长期适应性管理方案一部分的适用性。《综合环境评估与管理》2017年；13:100 - 114。© 2016 SETAC。
