Ruybal Jordan E, Kramer Laura D, Kilpatrick A Marm
Department Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of California, Santa Cruz, CA, 95064, USA.
New York State Department of Health, Wadsworth Center, Slingerlands, NY, 12159, USA.
Parasit Vectors. 2016 Feb 29;9:116. doi: 10.1186/s13071-016-1402-z.
Climate change is predicted to alter the transmission of many vector-borne pathogens. The quantitative impact of climate change is usually estimated by measuring the temperature-performance relationships for a single population of vectors, and then mapping this relationship across a range of temperatures or locations. However, life history traits of different populations often differ significantly. Specifically, performance across a range of temperatures is likely to vary due to local adaptation to temperature and other factors. This variation can cause spatial variation in pathogen transmission and will influence the impact of climate change on the transmission of vector-borne pathogens.
We quantified variation in life history traits for four populations of Culex pipiens (Linnaeus) mosquitoes. The populations were distributed along altitudinal and latitudinal gradients in the eastern United States that spanned ~3 °C in mean summer temperature, which is similar to the magnitude of global warming expected in the next 3-5 decades. We measured larval and adult survival, development rate, and biting rate at six temperatures between 16 and 35 °C, in a common garden experiment.
Temperature had strong and consistent non-linear effects on all four life history traits for all four populations. Adult female development time decreased monotonically with increasing temperature, with the largest decrease at cold temperatures. Daily juvenile and adult female survival also decreased with increasing temperature, but the largest decrease occurred at higher temperatures. There was significant among-population variation in the thermal response curves for the four life history traits across the four populations, with larval survival, adult survival, and development rate varying up to 45, 79, and 84 % among populations, respectively. However, variation was not correlated with local temperatures and thus did not support the local thermal adaptation hypothesis.
These results suggest that the impact of climate change on vector-borne disease will be more variable than previous predictions, and our data provide an estimate of this uncertainty. In addition, the variation among populations that we observed will shape the response of vectors to changing climates.
预计气候变化会改变许多媒介传播病原体的传播情况。气候变化的定量影响通常通过测量单种种群媒介的温度-性能关系来估计，然后将这种关系映射到一系列温度或地点上。然而，不同种群的生活史特征往往有显著差异。具体而言，由于对温度和其他因素的局部适应，一系列温度下的性能可能会有所不同。这种变化会导致病原体传播的空间差异，并将影响气候变化对媒介传播病原体传播的影响。
我们对致倦库蚊（林奈）的四个种群的生活史特征变化进行了量化。这些种群分布在美国东部的海拔和纬度梯度上，夏季平均温度跨度约为3°C，这与未来3至5十年预计的全球变暖幅度相似。在一个共同花园实验中，我们在16至35°C的六个温度下测量了幼虫和成虫的存活率、发育率和叮咬率。
温度对所有四个种群的所有四个生活史特征都有强烈且一致的非线性影响。成年雌性发育时间随温度升高单调减少，在低温时减少幅度最大。每日幼虫和成年雌性存活率也随温度升高而降低，但在较高温度时下降幅度最大。四个种群的四个生活史特征的热反应曲线存在显著的种群间差异，幼虫存活率、成虫存活率和发育率在种群间的变化分别高达45%、79%和84%。然而，这种变化与当地温度无关，因此不支持局部热适应假说。
这些结果表明，气候变化对媒介传播疾病的影响将比先前预测的更具变化性，我们的数据提供了这种不确定性的估计。此外，我们观察到的种群间差异将塑造媒介对气候变化的反应。
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