Medina García Pedro M, Baños Rivera Rosa M
Centro Penitenciario de Tarragona.
Psicothema. 2016 May;28(2):194-200. doi: 10.7334/psicothema2015.269.
Attempts to predict prison recidivism based on the personality have not been very successful. This study aims to provide data on recidivism prediction based on the scores on a personality questionnaire. For this purpose, a predictive model combining the actuarial procedure with a posteriori probability was developed, consisting of the probabilistic calculation of the effective verification of the event once it has already occurred.
Cuestionario de Personalidad Situacional (CPS; Fernández, Seisdedos, & Mielgo, 1998) was applied to 978 male inmates classified as recidivists or non-recidivists.
High predictive power was achieved, with the area under the curve (AUC) of 0.85 (p <.001; Se = 0.012; 95% CI [0.826, 0.873]. The answers to the CPS items made it possible to properly discriminate 77.3% of the participants.
These data indicate the important role of the personality as a key factor in understanding delinquency and predicting recidivism.
基于人格来预测监狱再犯率的尝试并不十分成功。本研究旨在提供基于一份人格问卷得分的再犯率预测数据。为此，开发了一种将精算程序与后验概率相结合的预测模型，该模型包括对事件已经发生后有效验证的概率计算。
对978名被归类为再犯者或非再犯者的男性囚犯应用了情境人格问卷（CPS；费尔南德斯、塞斯德多斯和米尔戈，1998年）。
实现了较高的预测能力，曲线下面积（AUC）为0.85（p<0.001；Se = 0.012；95%置信区间[0.826, 0.873]）。CPS项目的答案能够正确区分77.3%的参与者。
这些数据表明人格作为理解犯罪行为和预测再犯率的关键因素具有重要作用。
