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根据中国中南部宜昌西北部基于树木年轮的冬半年最低温度重建推断出的近期变暖证据及其与大尺度环流异常的关系。

Recent warming evidence inferred from a tree-ring-based winter-half year minimum temperature reconstruction in northwestern Yichang, South Central China, and its relation to the large-scale circulation anomalies.

作者信息

Cai Qiufang, Liu Yu, Wang Yanchao, Ma Yongyong, Liu Han

机构信息

The State Key Laboratory of Loess and Quaternary Geology, Institute of Earth Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Xi'an, 710075, China.

Department of Environmental Science and Technology, School of Human Settlements and Civil Engineering, Xi'an Jiaotong University, Xi'an, 710049, China.

出版信息

Int J Biometeorol. 2016 Dec;60(12):1885-1896. doi: 10.1007/s00484-016-1175-2. Epub 2016 May 2.

DOI:10.1007/s00484-016-1175-2
PMID:27136901
Abstract

High-resolution winter temperature reconstructions in China are rare, yet vital for the comprehensive understanding of past climate change. In the present work, the first winter-half year minimum mean temperature from previous November to current April in northwestern Yichang, South Central China, was reconstructed back to 1875 based on tree-ring material. The reconstruction can explain 55 % of the variance over the calibration period during 1955-2011. The temperature maintained at comparatively low level before 1958, and an abnormal warming was seen since 1959. However, the warming trend stagnated after 2000 AD. 2001-2010 was the warmest decade not only during the instrumental period but also during the whole reconstructed period. The reconstruction indicates good spatial resemblance to other temperatures series in adjacent areas and Northern Hemisphere, yet the recent warming in this study is earlier and more prominent than that of Southeast China. This work also manifests that the winter-half year minimum temperature in study area has good agreement with summer (June-September) maximum temperature variation in Southeast China at decadal scale, except that the winter-half year warming in recent decades is more evident than summer. This reconstruction is not only useful in improving our knowledge of long-term temperature variation but also useful in predicting the tree growth dynamics in the future in the study area.

摘要

中国高分辨率的冬季温度重建研究较为罕见,但对于全面了解过去的气候变化至关重要。在本研究中,基于树木年轮资料,重建了中国中南部宜昌西北部地区自1875年以来前一年11月至当年4月的首个冬半年最低平均温度。该重建能够解释1955 - 2011年校准期内55%的方差。1958年以前温度维持在相对较低水平,自1959年起出现异常变暖。然而,公元2000年后变暖趋势停滞。2001 - 2010年不仅是仪器观测期内最温暖的十年,也是整个重建期内最温暖的十年。该重建显示出与相邻地区及北半球其他温度序列良好的空间相似性,但本研究中近期的变暖比中国东南部更早且更显著。这项研究还表明,研究区域的冬半年最低温度与中国东南部夏季(6 - 9月)最高温度在年代际尺度上具有良好的一致性,只是近几十年来冬半年的变暖比夏季更为明显。这一重建不仅有助于增进我们对长期温度变化的了解,还对预测研究区域未来的树木生长动态具有重要意义。

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本文引用的文献

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February-May temperature reconstruction based on tree-ring widths of Abies fargesii from the Shennongjia area in central China.基于中国中部神农架地区巴山冷杉年轮宽度的2月至5月温度重建。
Int J Biometeorol. 2016 Aug;60(8):1175-81. doi: 10.1007/s00484-015-1111-x. Epub 2016 Jan 13.
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一份来自青藏高原东北部的 3500 年树木年轮降水记录。
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