Esper Jan, Cook Edward R, Schweingruber Fritz H
Swiss Federal Research Institute WSL, Zuercherstrasse 111, 8903 Birmensdorf, Switzerland.
Science. 2002 Mar 22;295(5563):2250-3. doi: 10.1126/science.1066208.
Preserving multicentennial climate variability in long tree-ring records is critically important for reconstructing the full range of temperature variability over the past 1000 years. This allows the putative "Medieval Warm Period" (MWP) to be described and to be compared with 20th-century warming in modeling and attribution studies. We demonstrate that carefully selected tree-ring chronologies from 14 sites in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) extratropics can preserve such coherent large-scale, multicentennial temperature trends if proper methods of analysis are used. In addition, we show that the average of these chronologies supports the large-scale occurrence of the MWP over the NH extratropics.
在长期的树木年轮记录中保存数百年的气候变异性对于重建过去1000年的全范围温度变异性至关重要。这使得假定的“中世纪暖期”（MWP）能够被描述，并在建模和归因研究中与20世纪的变暖情况进行比较。我们证明，如果使用适当的分析方法，从北半球（NH）温带的14个地点精心挑选的树木年轮年表可以保存这种连贯的大规模、数百年的温度趋势。此外，我们表明，这些年表的平均值支持NH温带大规模出现MWP。
