How can we reduce phosphorus export from lowland polders? Implications from a sensitivity analysis of a coupled model.

Phosphorus (P) export from lowland polders has caused severe water pollution. Numerical models are an important resource that help water managers control P export. This study coupled three models, i.e., Phosphorus Dynamic model for Polders (PDP), Integrated Catchments model of Phosphorus dynamics (INCA-P) and Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE), to describe the P dynamics in polders. Based on the coupled models and a dataset collected from Polder Jian in China, sensitivity analysis were carried out to analyze the cause-effect relationships between environmental factors and P export from Polder Jian. The sensitivity analysis results showed that P export from Polder Jian were strongly affected by air temperature, precipitation and fertilization. Proper fertilization management should be a strategic priority for reducing P export from Polder Jian. This study demonstrated the success of model coupling, and its application in investigating potential strategies to support pollution control in polder systems.