Dervo Børre K, Bærum Kim Magnus, Skurdal Jostein, Museth Jon
Norwegian Institute of Nature Research (NINA), Human Dimension Department, Fakkelgården, 2624 Lillehammer, Norway.
Scientifica (Cairo). 2016;2016:3174316. doi: 10.1155/2016/3174316. Epub 2016 Apr 28.
To reveal the effects of climate, a generalized linear mixed model was used to explore the variation in onset of spawning migration for the two newt species T. cristatus and L. vulgaris in southern Norway. Amphibians are highly influenced by the physical environment, such as temperature and rainfall. The first migrating newts were observed subsequently to the three first consecutive days with mean temperature close to or above 4°C. Further, migration of L. vulgaris was facilitated at lower temperatures compared to T. cristatus, but the migration was dependent on higher precipitation levels. Northern populations of T. cristatus and L. vulgaris may already benefit from a warmer climate due to increased recruitment and juvenile survival. However, an offset in the migration phenology due to climate change might further alter the recruitment and survival rates with either positive or negative outcome. Thus, variations in migration phenology for newts due to climate change may have implications for management and protection status in many systems. In a general context, we should increase emphasis on protecting newts and support increased populations and distribution.
为揭示气候的影响，我们使用广义线性混合模型来探究挪威南部两种蝾螈（冠欧螈和普通欧螈）产卵洄游开始时间的变化。两栖动物受温度和降雨等物理环境的影响很大。在平均温度接近或高于4°C的连续三个首日之后，首次观察到洄游的蝾螈。此外，与冠欧螈相比，普通欧螈在较低温度下更容易洄游，但这种洄游依赖于更高的降水量。冠欧螈和普通欧螈的北方种群可能已经因气候变暖导致的补充量增加和幼体存活率提高而受益。然而，气候变化导致的洄游物候变化可能会进一步改变补充量和存活率，结果可能是积极的，也可能是消极的。因此，气候变化导致的蝾螈洄游物候变化可能会对许多系统的管理和保护状况产生影响。在一般情况下，我们应该更加重视保护蝾螈，并支持增加其种群数量和分布范围。
